{ "about": "The Regulated to Fail Policy Simulator, model 0.5.0. Every number the model uses, with its kind, evidence grade, range and sources, plus the synthetic sector's group data, current policy, the economic forecast, presets, shocks, levers and calibration targets. No real institution is named or identifiable. See README.md beside this file.", "modelVersion": "0.5.0", "licence": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0). Source data keep their own licences (HESA and OfS data: see each source).", "generatedAt": "2026-10-14T15:50:51.828Z", "baseYear": 2024, "totals": { "parameters": 121, "byKind": { "accounting": 5, "empirical": 34, "assumption": 82 }, "byEvidence": { "strong": 8, "weak": 38, "moderate": 20, "none": 55 }, "sources": 65, "providers": 279 }, "parameters": { "research.ukri.fecShare": { "id": "research.ukri.fecShare", "label": "Share of full economic cost paid on a UKRI grant", "kind": "accounting", "evidence": "strong", "unit": "fraction of full economic cost", "central": 0.8, "sources": [ { "title": "Find out what costs are eligible for UKRI funding", "publisher": "UK Research and Innovation", "url": "https://www.ukri.org/apply-for-funding/develop-your-application/what-costs-are-eligible-for-ukri-funding/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "UKRI 'usually fund 80% of the full economic cost of your project.'" } ], "note": "The rate at which research council grants in providers' 2024-25 accounts were paid. Research council income in later years scales with the UKRI rate in force (the cost-recovery lever) relative to this, while the volume of research, and so its cost, does not." }, "behaviour.deficitYearsBeforeCuts": { "id": "behaviour.deficitYearsBeforeCuts", "label": "Consecutive deficit years before a provider starts restructuring", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "years", "central": 2, "low": 1, "high": 3, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Share of providers reporting restructuring costs the following year: 18 per cent after a surplus, 24 per cent after one deficit, 33 per cent after two or more (2018/19-2024/25)." }, { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Paragraph 78: restructuring costs reported by 65 providers in 2024-25, just under a quarter of the sector." } ], "note": "The design brief's two consecutive deficits. Restructuring becomes markedly more common after the second deficit year in HESA's data. A provider whose cash falls below the low-liquidity threshold while in deficit acts after one." }, "students.intlHeadcountPerFte": { "id": "students.intlHeadcountPerFte", "label": "International students per international FTE", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "headcount per FTE", "central": 1.05, "low": 1, "high": 1.15, "sources": [], "note": "The levy is charged per head; OfS data are in FTE. International students are overwhelmingly full-time because of visa conditions, so headcount is close to FTE. Students who start mid-year and continue beyond the anniversary are charged in two levy years, which pushes the ratio above 1." }, "levy.exemptShare": { "id": "levy.exemptShare", "label": "Share of international students exempt from the levy", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of headcount", "central": 0.05, "low": 0, "high": 0.1, "sources": [ { "title": "International Student Levy: government technical consultation response", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a50c1d22467584757371cea/ISL_Consultation_Response.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Exempt categories will be set in secondary legislation; the worked example exempts 43 of 700 students (6 per cent)." } ], "note": "The exempt categories are not yet final. The worked example is illustrative, not an estimate." }, "students.homeDemographyElasticity": { "id": "students.homeDemographyElasticity", "label": "Response of home undergraduate numbers to the 18-year-old population", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "elasticity", "central": 1, "low": 0.5, "high": 1.2, "sources": [ { "title": "Student Demand to 2035 (HEPI Report 179)", "publisher": "Higher Education Policy Institute", "url": "https://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Student-Demand-to-2035.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-08-14", "supports": "Projects demand from the 18-year-old population at constant participation rates." } ], "note": "1.0 means participation rates stay constant, so student numbers move with the cohort. The undergraduate population responds to the average of the last three entry cohorts. From Phase 3, demand also responds to policy and reputation, and recruitment shifts between groups." }, "income.intlFeeGrowthMinusCpi": { "id": "income.intlFeeGrowthMinusCpi", "label": "Real growth in international fees", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "annual rate above CPI", "central": 0, "low": -0.01, "high": 0.02, "sources": [ { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026, paragraphs 95-111 and 177", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/p0dd3sdq/ofs-2026_21-updated-15-6-26.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Many providers are forecasting significant increases in international fee levels; the OfS warns this may not be achievable." } ], "note": "The baseline keeps international fees constant in real terms, as the DfE's levy impact analysis does. The upper end reflects providers' own forecasts." }, "income.otherGrowthMinusCpi": { "id": "income.otherGrowthMinusCpi", "label": "Real growth in postgraduate home fees, contracts and other income", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "annual rate above CPI", "central": 0, "low": -0.01, "high": 0.01, "sources": [], "note": "Covers unregulated home postgraduate fees, education contracts, accommodation and other commercial income, investment income and donations: all assumed to keep pace with prices." }, "research.grantGrowthMinusCpi": { "id": "research.grantGrowthMinusCpi", "label": "Real growth in research grant and contract income", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "annual rate above CPI", "central": -0.005, "low": -0.02, "high": 0.01, "sources": [ { "title": "UKRI's curiosity-driven research funding held at flat cash to 2030", "publisher": "Research Professional News", "url": "https://www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-research-councils-2025-12-flat-cash-for-curiosity-driven-research-at-ukri-up-to-2030/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "UKRI curiosity-driven research budgets held at flat cash to 2030." } ], "note": "Research councils are about a fifth to a quarter of research income; charities, government departments and industry make up the rest. Flat-cash UKRI budgets pull the total slightly below inflation." }, "costs.payAwardMinusCpi": { "id": "costs.payAwardMinusCpi", "label": "Future national pay awards relative to inflation", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "annual rate above CPI", "central": 0, "low": -0.01, "high": 0.005, "sources": [], "note": "Applied from 2027-28, after the known 1.4 per cent (2025-26) and 2 per cent (2026-27) awards. Recent awards have been at or below CPI because institutions could not afford more; awards matching CPI is the neutral assumption." }, "costs.payDrift": { "id": "costs.payDrift", "label": "Pay drift (incremental progression net of staff turnover)", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "annual rate", "central": 0.005, "low": 0, "high": 0.015, "sources": [], "note": "Staff move up the pay spine each year; leavers are replaced lower down. The net effect adds to the pay bill on top of the national award even with unchanged staff numbers." }, "costs.nonPayGrowthMinusCpi": { "id": "costs.nonPayGrowthMinusCpi", "label": "Real growth in non-pay costs", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "annual rate above CPI", "central": 0, "low": -0.01, "high": 0.015, "sources": [], "note": "Applies to other operating expenses and depreciation. Energy, insurance, software licences and maintenance have recently risen faster than CPI; the upper end reflects that continuing." }, "finance.capexToDepreciation": { "id": "finance.capexToDepreciation", "label": "Normal capital spending relative to depreciation", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "ratio", "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance 2024/25, Table 4 (cash flows) and Table 1", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances/table-4", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Payments to acquire tangible and intangible assets against depreciation in 2024-25, summed over each group's providers (hesa-distributions.json): 1.01 for large teaching-intensives to 2.25 for specialist creative institutions; 1.29 for the sector, matching the OfS total of £4.0bn (Table 19)." }, { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Table 5: providers forecast net liquidity of £13.2bn-£14.7bn to 2028-29 while surpluses rise to £2.4bn, so surpluses are spent, not banked; capital spending of £4.0bn in 2024-25 and a forecast £5.1bn in 2025-26." } ], "note": "Each group's measured 2024-25 ratio is its providers' normal capital spending. A provider under pressure spends less (behaviour.capexCutLevel), one in comfortable surplus more (behaviour.investLevel), both measured against the median provider, so across the sector the three average out near the measured ratio. Spending above depreciation was partly financed by capital grants (already in income) and borrowing; the model holds borrowing constant, so the high end of the range assumes some of it is debt-financed.", "byArchetype": { "largeResearch": { "central": 1.3506, "low": 1.013, "high": 1.553 }, "largeTeaching": { "central": 1.0061, "low": 0.755, "high": 1.157 }, "medium": { "central": 1.1814, "low": 0.886, "high": 1.359 }, "smaller": { "central": 1.4704, "low": 1.103, "high": 1.691 }, "specialist": { "central": 1.4967, "low": 1.123, "high": 1.721 }, "specialistCreative": { "central": 2.2493, "low": 1.687, "high": 2.587 }, "level45": { "central": 1.3737, "low": 1.03, "high": 1.58 } } }, "finance.shortTermPremium": { "id": "finance.shortTermPremium", "label": "Interest above Bank Rate on short-term borrowing by providers with negative net liquidity", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "annual rate above Bank Rate", "central": 0.03, "low": 0.015, "high": 0.05, "sources": [], "note": "A provider whose borrowing exceeds its cash and current investments at the year end must have borrowed to cover the gap (a revolving credit facility, overdraft or deferred payments) and pays interest on it the following year. Lending to distressed providers is priced case by case; three points over Bank Rate is an illustrative premium for an unsecured facility." }, "status.lowLiquidityShare": { "id": "status.lowLiquidityShare", "label": "Low liquidity threshold", "kind": "accounting", "evidence": "strong", "unit": "net liquidity as a fraction of annual expenditure", "central": 0.1, "sources": [ { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026, paragraph 181", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/p0dd3sdq/ofs-2026_21-updated-15-6-26.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The OfS counts providers 'with low liquidity (below 10 per cent of expenditure)'." } ], "note": "A definition, not an estimate: the OfS's own threshold, about 37 days of spending. Providers below it are shown red." }, "intl.priceElasticity.ugShortRun": { "id": "intl.priceElasticity.ugShortRun", "label": "International undergraduate demand: short-run price elasticity", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "% change in entrants per % change in fees", "central": -0.54, "low": -0.8, "high": -0.3, "sources": [ { "title": "Counting the cost: modelling the economic impact of a potential levy on international student fees (ISL Modelling – Final Report)", "publisher": "Public First", "url": "https://www.publicfirst.co.uk/couting-the-cost", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Non-EU price elasticity of demand: undergraduates −0.54 short run, −0.25 long run; postgraduates −0.81 short run, −0.46 long run. 'It would take 5 years, all else being constant, for the sector to recover half of those lost student numbers.' Published 23 September 2025." } ], "note": "The immediate response of new non-EU undergraduate entrants to a fee rise. Public First's study was commissioned by a group of universities opposing the levy; the DfE used the same estimates in its own analysis." }, "intl.priceElasticity.ugLongRun": { "id": "intl.priceElasticity.ugLongRun", "label": "International undergraduate demand: long-run price elasticity", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "% change in entrants per % change in fees", "central": -0.25, "low": -0.45, "high": 0, "sources": [ { "title": "Counting the cost: modelling the economic impact of a potential levy on international student fees (ISL Modelling – Final Report)", "publisher": "Public First", "url": "https://www.publicfirst.co.uk/couting-the-cost", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Non-EU price elasticity of demand: undergraduates −0.54 short run, −0.25 long run; postgraduates −0.81 short run, −0.46 long run. 'It would take 5 years, all else being constant, for the sector to recover half of those lost student numbers.' Published 23 September 2025." } ], "note": "The response once recruitment has adjusted: smaller than the short-run effect, as some lost demand returns." }, "intl.priceElasticity.pgShortRun": { "id": "intl.priceElasticity.pgShortRun", "label": "International postgraduate demand: short-run price elasticity", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "% change in entrants per % change in fees", "central": -0.81, "low": -1.1, "high": -0.5, "sources": [ { "title": "Counting the cost: modelling the economic impact of a potential levy on international student fees (ISL Modelling – Final Report)", "publisher": "Public First", "url": "https://www.publicfirst.co.uk/couting-the-cost", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Non-EU price elasticity of demand: undergraduates −0.54 short run, −0.25 long run; postgraduates −0.81 short run, −0.46 long run. 'It would take 5 years, all else being constant, for the sector to recover half of those lost student numbers.' Published 23 September 2025." } ], "note": "Postgraduates, mostly on one-year taught courses, are more price-sensitive than undergraduates. Applied to research students as well, for want of a separate estimate." }, "intl.priceElasticity.pgLongRun": { "id": "intl.priceElasticity.pgLongRun", "label": "International postgraduate demand: long-run price elasticity", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "% change in entrants per % change in fees", "central": -0.46, "low": -0.7, "high": -0.2, "sources": [ { "title": "Counting the cost: modelling the economic impact of a potential levy on international student fees (ISL Modelling – Final Report)", "publisher": "Public First", "url": "https://www.publicfirst.co.uk/couting-the-cost", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Non-EU price elasticity of demand: undergraduates −0.54 short run, −0.25 long run; postgraduates −0.81 short run, −0.46 long run. 'It would take 5 years, all else being constant, for the sector to recover half of those lost student numbers.' Published 23 September 2025." } ], "note": "As for the undergraduate long-run elasticity." }, "intl.priceAdjustmentHalfLife": { "id": "intl.priceAdjustmentHalfLife", "label": "Years for half the short-run fall in demand to recover", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "years", "central": 5, "low": 3, "high": 8, "sources": [ { "title": "Counting the cost: modelling the economic impact of a potential levy on international student fees (ISL Modelling – Final Report)", "publisher": "Public First", "url": "https://www.publicfirst.co.uk/couting-the-cost", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Non-EU price elasticity of demand: undergraduates −0.54 short run, −0.25 long run; postgraduates −0.81 short run, −0.46 long run. 'It would take 5 years, all else being constant, for the sector to recover half of those lost student numbers.' Published 23 September 2025." } ], "note": "Demand moves to the short-run response when fees change and drifts towards the long-run response, closing half the gap every this-many years." }, "levy.passThrough": { "id": "levy.passThrough", "label": "Share of the levy passed on in higher international fees", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "fraction of the levy per student", "central": 0.9, "low": 0.5, "high": 1, "sources": [ { "title": "International Student Levy – impact analysis (November 2025)", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://consult.education.gov.uk/international-student-levy-unit/international-student-levy/supporting_documents/international-student-levy-impact-analysispdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Uses Public First and London Economics elasticities; assumes providers pass the levy through 'to varying degrees'; estimates 14,000-17,000 fewer international enrolments a year and a net income loss of £270-330m against gross receipts of £445-480m, which implies close to full pass-through." }, { "title": "Counting the cost: modelling the economic impact of a potential levy on international student fees (ISL Modelling – Final Report)", "publisher": "Public First", "url": "https://www.publicfirst.co.uk/couting-the-cost", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Non-EU price elasticity of demand: undergraduates −0.54 short run, −0.25 long run; postgraduates −0.81 short run, −0.46 long run. 'It would take 5 years, all else being constant, for the sector to recover half of those lost student numbers.' Published 23 September 2025." } ], "note": "The DfE's estimates (an income loss of £270-330m against receipts of £445-480m) imply providers recover most of the levy through fees; Public First assumed slightly more than full pass-through. Providers are assumed to raise fees for all international students, not only those above the allowance." }, "intl.graduateRoute.abolitionEffect": { "id": "intl.graduateRoute.abolitionEffect", "label": "Effect on international entrants of abolishing the Graduate Route", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "proportional change in taught entrants", "central": -0.15, "low": -0.25, "high": -0.08, "sources": [ { "title": "Rapid Review of the Graduate Route (May 2024)", "publisher": "Migration Advisory Committee", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6745b2eecdd295aea88098b6/MAC+Rapid+Review+of+Graduate+Route+-+FINAL+Nov+24__1_.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "In a Home Office survey of Graduate visa holders, 73% of those aware of the route said it influenced their choice; of these, 34% would not have come to the UK without it. About 32% of international students go on to the route. In the QS survey, 30% of prospective students were 'much more' and 29% 'somewhat more' likely to consider the UK if the route were extended to three years." } ], "note": "About a quarter of Graduate visa holders (73% × 34%) say they would not have come without the route, and about a third of students use it, which gives roughly −8%; prospective students who never use the route also weigh it, which raises the effect; −25% applies the survey response to all students. Shorter routes are interpolated in proportion to the months removed from 24, so 18 months is about −4%. Applies to undergraduate and taught postgraduate entrants; doctoral graduates keep three years." }, "intl.graduateRoute.extensionEffect": { "id": "intl.graduateRoute.extensionEffect", "label": "Effect on international entrants of extending the Graduate Route to 36 months", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "proportional change in taught entrants", "central": 0.05, "low": 0, "high": 0.1, "sources": [ { "title": "Rapid Review of the Graduate Route (May 2024)", "publisher": "Migration Advisory Committee", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6745b2eecdd295aea88098b6/MAC+Rapid+Review+of+Graduate+Route+-+FINAL+Nov+24__1_.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "In a Home Office survey of Graduate visa holders, 73% of those aware of the route said it influenced their choice; of these, 34% would not have come to the UK without it. About 32% of international students go on to the route. In the QS survey, 30% of prospective students were 'much more' and 29% 'somewhat more' likely to consider the UK if the route were extended to three years." } ], "note": "Stated intentions in the QS survey overstate behaviour; the central value takes a small fraction of the 59% who said they would be more likely to consider the UK." }, "intl.dependantsEffectPgt": { "id": "intl.dependantsEffectPgt", "label": "Effect on international taught postgraduate entrants of allowing dependants again", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "proportional change in taught postgraduate entrants", "central": 0.08, "low": 0.03, "high": 0.15, "sources": [ { "title": "Rapid Review of the Graduate Route (May 2024)", "publisher": "Migration Advisory Committee", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6745b2eecdd295aea88098b6/MAC+Rapid+Review+of+Graduate+Route+-+FINAL+Nov+24__1_.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "In a Home Office survey of Graduate visa holders, 73% of those aware of the route said it influenced their choice; of these, 34% would not have come to the UK without it. About 32% of international students go on to the route. In the QS survey, 30% of prospective students were 'much more' and 29% 'somewhat more' likely to consider the UK if the route were extended to three years." }, { "title": "International applications to the UK dip in 2024", "publisher": "The PIE News", "url": "https://thepienews.com/international-student-applications-uk-dip-2024-home-office-buila/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Home Office data: main-applicant study visa applications fell 14% in 2024 and dependant applications 84%, after the January 2024 dependants restriction." } ], "note": "Main-applicant applications fell 14% in 2024 after the ban, but the MAC notes other causes (the naira's collapse, perceptions of hostility) and that 'the precise magnitude is currently hard to discern'. The central value attributes a little over half of that fall, on taught postgraduates only, to the ban." }, "home.feeElasticity": { "id": "home.feeElasticity", "label": "Home undergraduate demand: response to the fee cap", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "% change in entrants per % change in real fee", "central": 0, "low": -0.1, "high": 0, "sources": [ { "title": "The end of free college in England: implications for enrolments, equity and quality (Economics of Education Review 71, 2019, 7-22; doi 10.1016/j.econedurev.2018.11.007)", "publisher": "Murphy, Scott-Clayton and Wyness", "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272775717306404", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "England's move to high fees financed by income-contingent loans was followed by rising enrolments and a narrowing participation gap between advantaged and disadvantaged students." } ], "note": "Because fees are paid through income-contingent loans, the headline fee has little effect on whether people go to university. The low end allows a small effect." }, "government.rabCharge": { "id": "government.rabCharge", "label": "Share of student loan outlay not expected to be repaid (RAB charge)", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "strong", "unit": "fraction of outlay", "central": 0.33, "low": 0.25, "high": 0.4, "sources": [ { "title": "Student loan forecasts for England 2025-26", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/student-loan-forecasts-for-england/2025-26", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "33% of Plan 5 full-time higher education loan outlay in 2025-26 is not expected to be repaid; forecast 34% in 2029-30. Released 9 July 2026." } ], "note": "Used to turn fee income paid through loans into a cost to the taxpayer. The average charge is applied to all fee income; the charge on an extra pound of fee is probably higher, since more of it is written off." }, "government.homeFeeLoanShare": { "id": "government.homeFeeLoanShare", "label": "Share of home undergraduate fee income paid through student loans", "kind": "accounting", "evidence": "strong", "unit": "fraction of fee income", "central": 0.85, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance 2024/25, Table 6", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances/table-6", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "English providers' UK-domiciled undergraduate fee income in 2024/25: £9.5bn from SLC and the devolved equivalents out of £11.2bn (85%); the rest is paid by employers, the NHS, sponsors and students directly." } ], "note": "Calculated from the provider-level HESA file (data/simulator/provider-level)." }, "services.addressableShare": { "id": "services.addressableShare", "label": "Share of spending that shared services could address", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of expenditure (excluding depreciation and interest)", "central": 0.2, "low": 0.15, "high": 0.3, "sources": [], "note": "Back-office administration, IT, procurement, payroll and estates management. HESA expenditure by activity (Table 8) would measure this directly; not yet imported." }, "services.savingRate": { "id": "services.savingRate", "label": "Saving on a function moved into shared services", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "fraction of the function's cost", "central": 0.08, "low": 0.06, "high": 0.1, "sources": [ { "title": "Universities would share 'almost all' services to help finances", "publisher": "Times Higher Education", "url": "https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/universities-would-share-almost-all-services-help-finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "EY estimates that moving from in-house to shared services trims costs by 6-10 per cent." } ], "note": "Applied to the share of addressable spending moved into shared services." }, "services.adoptionFacilitated": { "id": "services.adoptionFacilitated", "label": "Share of addressable spending shared within five years if actively facilitated", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.4, "low": 0.2, "high": 0.6, "sources": [], "note": "Existing shared services reach only a subset of universities; facilitation (convening, start-up funding, a catalogue) widens take-up." }, "services.adoptionVatNeutral": { "id": "services.adoptionVatNeutral", "label": "Share shared within five years if facilitated and VAT is neutralised", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.7, "low": 0.5, "high": 0.9, "sources": [], "note": "Removing the VAT penalty makes most shared arrangements worthwhile, so take-up is higher." }, "services.vatDrag": { "id": "services.vatDrag", "label": "Share of the saving lost to VAT when it is not neutralised", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of gross saving", "central": 0.5, "low": 0.25, "high": 1, "sources": [ { "title": "Universities would share 'almost all' services to help finances", "publisher": "Times Higher Education", "url": "https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/universities-would-share-almost-all-services-help-finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The report urges reform of VAT rules that some organisations find 'unworkable' for cost-sharing groups." } ], "note": "Services one university supplies to another attract 20 per cent VAT, which the buyer cannot recover, unless they qualify for the cost-sharing exemption, whose conditions are strict. A 6-10 per cent saving cannot absorb a 20 per cent charge, so only arrangements that qualify go ahead, and they cost more to run." }, "services.rampYears": { "id": "services.rampYears", "label": "Years to reach full adoption of shared services", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "years", "central": 5, "low": 3, "high": 8, "sources": [], "note": "Procurement cycles, system migrations and staff consultation make this slow." }, "services.setupCostMultiple": { "id": "services.setupCostMultiple", "label": "Set-up cost of shared services, as a multiple of the eventual annual saving", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "multiple", "central": 1, "low": 0.5, "high": 2, "sources": [], "note": "Spent over the first two years, so the policy costs money before it saves any." }, "students.ugCourseYears": { "id": "students.ugCourseYears", "label": "Length of an undergraduate course", "kind": "accounting", "evidence": "strong", "unit": "years", "central": 3, "sources": [ { "title": "Higher education qualifications in England (FHEQ)", "publisher": "QAA", "url": "https://www.qaa.ac.uk/the-quality-code/qualifications-frameworks", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The standard full-time bachelor's degree in England takes three years." } ], "note": "Undergraduates on roll are the last three years' entrants, so a change in entrants takes three years to reach full effect on income." }, "students.pgrCourseYears": { "id": "students.pgrCourseYears", "label": "Length of a research degree", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "years", "central": 4, "low": 3, "high": 5, "sources": [], "note": "Full-time PhDs are funded for three to four years and often take longer." }, "regulation.costAtReference": { "id": "regulation.costAtReference", "label": "Regulatory compliance cost of a provider with £100m income", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "£m a year (2024-25 prices)", "central": 0.8, "low": 0.5, "high": 1.2, "sources": [ { "title": "Understanding the burden of regulation", "publisher": "Moorhouse Consulting for Universities UK", "url": "https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/sites/default/files/uploads/Reports/Moorhouse-regulatory-burden-report.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "An average of 17.6 FTE per university dedicated solely to regulatory compliance; of the order of £150-200m a year across 116 English universities." } ], "note": "Moorhouse's 17.6 compliance FTE at a typical university, plus OfS fees and systems. Scaled to other sizes by regulation.scaleElasticity; with the central values the 279 providers' compliance costs total about £0.2bn, consistent with Moorhouse's £150-200m for UUK members once smaller providers are added." }, "regulation.scaleElasticity": { "id": "regulation.scaleElasticity", "label": "How regulatory cost rises with provider size", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "elasticity of compliance cost to income", "central": 0.5, "low": 0.3, "high": 0.8, "sources": [ { "title": "OfS annual registration fee bands 2025-26 (as reported)", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/payment-of-annual-ofs-registration-fees/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Registration fees from £14,775 a year for up to 25 FTE students (£591 per FTE) to £228,570 for over 20,000 FTE (£11 per FTE): cost of regulation rising far less than proportionally with size." } ], "note": "Below 1, so compliance costs fall hardest, as a share of income, on small providers: the OfS's own fee schedule falls from £591 to £11 per student across its bands. 0.5 means a provider four times larger carries twice the cost." }, "behaviour.cautionLiquidityDays": { "id": "behaviour.cautionLiquidityDays", "label": "Liquidity below which a provider starts saving cash, even in surplus", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "days of cash spending", "central": 90, "low": 60, "high": 120, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Median capital spending against depreciation the following year, by liquidity days: 0.82 below 30 days, 0.92 at 30-60, 0.91 at 60-120, 1.20 above 120 (2018/19-2024/25)." } ], "note": "Providers with under about 120 days of cash spend visibly less on capital than those with more; the restraint is similar from 30 to 120 days. 90 days sits inside that range; it is the trigger for the first rung (recruitment freeze and capital cut)." }, "status.insolvencyDays": { "id": "status.insolvencyDays", "label": "Net liquidity at which a provider can no longer pay its way", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "days of cash spending (negative = owing)", "central": -30, "low": -60, "high": 0, "sources": [], "note": "Net liquidity (cash and current investments less overdrafts) can fall below zero while a provider draws on revolving credit or delays payments: five synthetic providers, like a handful of real ones, start 2024-25 below zero. Beyond about a month of spending owed, the model treats the provider as unable to continue without a merger or exit. There is no published threshold: lenders, the OfS and boards act case by case." }, "behaviour.freezeAttrition": { "id": "behaviour.freezeAttrition", "label": "Staff lost each year to a recruitment freeze", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of staff a year", "central": 0.02, "low": 0.01, "high": 0.03, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Median staff FTE growth the year after a deficit was 0.3 per cent (one deficit) and 0.8 per cent (two or more), against 2.7 per cent for providers with 3-6 per cent surpluses and 1.0 per cent for those with 0-3 per cent (2018/19-2024/25)." } ], "note": "Providers in deficit grew staff numbers about two percentage points a year more slowly than comparable providers in modest surplus. The model has no underlying growth in staff, so the freeze is entered as a fall of that size: posts left unfilled as people leave." }, "behaviour.severanceShare": { "id": "behaviour.severanceShare", "label": "Staff leaving in one voluntary severance programme", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of staff", "central": 0.03, "low": 0.02, "high": 0.05, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Of the 59 English providers with restructuring costs in 2024/25 (£230m in total), the median cost was 2.0 per cent of staff costs and the upper quartile 3.7 per cent." }, { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Paragraph 78: restructuring costs rose 20.7 per cent to £218.2m in 2024-25 across 65 providers, 'primarily through voluntary redundancy schemes'." } ], "note": "A median programme costing 2.0 per cent of staff costs, at three-quarters of a year's pay per leaver (behaviour.severanceCostMultiple), buys about 2.7 per cent of staff; 3 per cent is that, rounded. Schemes are open to all staff, so research activity falls with teaching staff at research-active providers. Savings start the year after the programme." }, "behaviour.severanceCostMultiple": { "id": "behaviour.severanceCostMultiple", "label": "Severance cost per leaver", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "years of the leaver's staff cost", "central": 0.75, "low": 0.5, "high": 1.25, "sources": [ { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Annex: providers report that 'severance costs for staff make redundancy programmes financially unviable for many institutions'." } ], "note": "Voluntary schemes pay statutory redundancy plus an enhancement, typically several months' pay; pension strain costs can add to it. No sector-wide figure is published." }, "behaviour.restructuringIntervalYears": { "id": "behaviour.restructuringIntervalYears", "label": "Years between restructuring programmes at a provider still in deficit", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "years", "central": 3, "low": 2, "high": 4, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Providers with two or more consecutive deficits reported restructuring costs in 33 per cent of the following years (24 per cent after one deficit, 18 per cent after a surplus)." } ], "note": "Roughly one programme every three years for a provider that stays in deficit. The model does not reproduce the 18 per cent background rate of restructuring among providers in surplus: reorganisations that do not respond to deficits are left in the base-year cost lines." }, "behaviour.capexCutLevel": { "id": "behaviour.capexCutLevel", "label": "Capital spending of a provider under pressure, relative to normal", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.73, "low": 0.55, "high": 0.9, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Median capital spending against depreciation the year after a deficit: 0.77, against 1.05 for all provider-years (2018/19-2024/25)." }, { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Paragraph 82: capital spending fell 7.9 per cent in 2024-25, indicating short-term restraint." } ], "note": "Providers in deficit spend 0.73 times what the median provider spends on capital, relative to depreciation. The shortfall against normal spending accumulates as a maintenance backlog, which weighs on student experience until it is made up." }, "behaviour.investLevel": { "id": "behaviour.investLevel", "label": "Capital spending of a provider in comfortable surplus, relative to normal", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "fraction", "central": 1.24, "low": 1.1, "high": 1.4, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Median capital spending against depreciation the year after a surplus of 3 per cent or more: 1.30, against 1.05 for all provider-years (2018/19-2024/25)." } ], "note": "Providers with surpluses above behaviour.recoveryMargin and cash above the caution level invest more than depreciation, as they do in HESA's data. Without this, surpluses would pile up as cash that real providers spend on their estates." }, "behaviour.capexCatchUp": { "id": "behaviour.capexCatchUp", "label": "Extra capital spending while a backlog is cleared", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of normal capital spending", "central": 0.25, "low": 0, "high": 0.5, "sources": [], "note": "A recovered provider spends a quarter more than normal on its estate until the deferred work is done." }, "behaviour.recoveryMargin": { "id": "behaviour.recoveryMargin", "label": "Surplus at which a provider starts rebuilding", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of income", "central": 0.03, "low": 0.01, "high": 0.05, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Median staff FTE growth the following year: 1.0 per cent after a surplus of 0-3 per cent, 2.7 per cent at 3-6 per cent, 5.3 per cent above 6 per cent." } ], "note": "Above a 3 per cent surplus (with liquidity above the caution level) providers hire back towards their 2024-25 student-staff ratio and restore research activity." }, "behaviour.hiringRate": { "id": "behaviour.hiringRate", "label": "Fastest rebuilding of staff or research a year", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction a year", "central": 0.03, "low": 0.02, "high": 0.05, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Providers with surpluses of 3-6 per cent grew staff numbers by a median 2.7 per cent a year." } ], "note": "Recovery is slower than decline: hiring takes time and providers that have cut stay cautious." }, "behaviour.expansionMargin": { "id": "behaviour.expansionMargin", "label": "Surplus at which a provider expands beyond its 2024-25 staffing", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of income", "central": 0.06, "low": 0.04, "high": 0.08, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Median staff FTE growth the following year: 5.3 per cent for providers with surpluses above 6 per cent, 2.7 per cent at 3-6 per cent, and 2.6 per cent for all provider-years (2018/19-2024/25)." } ], "note": "Providers with large surpluses spend them: staff grow by behaviour.hiringRate a year even beyond the 2024-25 student-staff ratio, which improves student experience and closes the surplus. This, the recruitment freeze and severance are the model's routes by which margins revert towards their group, as HESA shows they do." }, "behaviour.intlPushEffect": { "id": "behaviour.intlPushEffect", "label": "Extra international entrants from one recruitment push", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of entrants", "central": 0.05, "low": 0, "high": 0.1, "sources": [], "note": "More agents, new markets and partnerships. The effect on the UK total is smaller (behaviour.intlNewToUkShare): much of it is students who would have gone to another English provider." }, "behaviour.intlPushMax": { "id": "behaviour.intlPushMax", "label": "Most a provider can add to international recruitment by effort", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of entrants", "central": 0.1, "low": 0.05, "high": 0.2, "sources": [], "note": "Two pushes at most: demand, visas and reputation, not effort, set the scale of international recruitment." }, "behaviour.agentCommission": { "id": "behaviour.agentCommission", "label": "Agent commission on additional international recruits", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of the first year's fee", "central": 0.2, "low": 0.1, "high": 0.3, "sources": [ { "title": "Education agents: Inside the murky and 'unchecked' £500m industry changing shape of UK universities", "publisher": "The Big Issue", "url": "https://www.bigissue.com/life/what-are-education-agents-uk-universities/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Agents are paid between 10 and 30 per cent of students' first-year fees; UK universities spend about £500m a year on agents." } ], "note": "Journalistic evidence from freedom of information requests; no official series exists." }, "behaviour.intlNewToUkShare": { "id": "behaviour.intlNewToUkShare", "label": "Share of extra international recruits who would not otherwise have come to England", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.5, "low": 0.2, "high": 0.8, "sources": [], "note": "The rest are taken from other English providers, so if every provider pushes, the sector gains little. Taken from other providers in proportion to their international entrants, the following year." }, "behaviour.closureStaffShare": { "id": "behaviour.closureStaffShare", "label": "Staff cost removed by one round of course closures", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of teaching staff", "central": 0.04, "low": 0.02, "high": 0.06, "sources": [], "note": "Closures target low-enrolment courses, which cost more per student than average, so a round removes more staff than students. Savings start two years later, after teach-out." }, "behaviour.closureStudentShare": { "id": "behaviour.closureStudentShare", "label": "Students lost by one round of course closures", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of students", "central": 0.015, "low": 0.005, "high": 0.03, "sources": [], "note": "Low-enrolment courses carry few students, and some of those who would have taken them choose another course at the same provider." }, "behaviour.closureBreadthShare": { "id": "behaviour.closureBreadthShare", "label": "Course provision lost by one round of closures", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of provision", "central": 0.06, "low": 0.03, "high": 0.1, "sources": [], "note": "Subject breadth falls by more than student numbers: the courses that close are small ones." }, "behaviour.researchCutShare": { "id": "behaviour.researchCutShare", "label": "Research activity cut in one round", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of research activity", "central": 0.1, "low": 0.05, "high": 0.2, "sources": [], "note": "Research recovers about 70 per cent of its full cost at research-intensive providers (TRAC), so cutting it saves money at once; the QR income that depends on it falls only after the next REF. Applied to providers whose research is at least 10 per cent of their costs." }, "behaviour.ssrRiseShare": { "id": "behaviour.ssrRiseShare", "label": "Compulsory staff reduction in a liquidity crisis", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of teaching staff", "central": 0.05, "low": 0.03, "high": 0.08, "sources": [], "note": "The step after voluntary schemes: compulsory redundancies, larger classes and fewer optional modules. Costs the same per leaver as severance." }, "behaviour.assetSaleShare": { "id": "behaviour.assetSaleShare", "label": "Cash raised by selling assets", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of annual income", "central": 0.05, "low": 0.02, "high": 0.1, "sources": [], "note": "A one-off disposal of land, buildings or investments. Gains on disposal are excluded from the surplus the model reports (as in the OfS adjusted surplus), so the sale affects cash only." }, "behaviour.assetSaleAvailability": { "id": "behaviour.assetSaleAvailability", "label": "Share of providers with assets they could sell", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of providers", "central": 0.5, "low": 0.25, "high": 0.75, "sources": [ { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Annex: 'Divesting assets to raise funds is a course of action some providers have looked into, but this option is not available to many.'" } ], "note": "Drawn once per provider with the population." }, "merger.partnerMinDays": { "id": "merger.partnerMinDays", "label": "Liquidity a provider needs to take over another", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "days of cash spending", "central": 120, "low": 90, "high": 180, "sources": [], "note": "A partner must be financially comfortable (in surplus, liquidity above this level) and keep at least half this level after absorbing the other provider's cash shortfall. Partners in the same region are preferred, then the same type of provider elsewhere." }, "merger.partnerChance": { "id": "merger.partnerChance", "label": "Chance each year that a provider in trouble finds a willing partner", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "probability a year", "central": 0.5, "low": 0.25, "high": 0.75, "sources": [ { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Annex: mergers are 'becoming an increasing part of conversations about financial sustainability', with objectives varying from diversification to economies of scale." } ], "note": "Even where a financially able partner exists, a merger needs a strategic fit, due diligence, lender and OfS consent and agreement between governing bodies; many discussions fail. Among able partners in the region, one is chosen with a chance proportional to its income; a provider that has absorbed another in the last merger.integrationYears is not available." }, "merger.integrationCost": { "id": "merger.integrationCost", "label": "One-off cost of merging", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of the absorbed provider's annual spending", "central": 0.05, "low": 0.02, "high": 0.1, "sources": [], "note": "Systems, rebranding, legal costs and severance, in the year after the merger." }, "merger.integrationSaving": { "id": "merger.integrationSaving", "label": "Saving from merging, once integrated", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of the absorbed provider's staff and other costs", "central": 0.05, "low": 0.02, "high": 0.1, "sources": [ { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Annex: providers discussed the efficiencies of sharing finance, HR and IT functions from a central hub, and mergers for diversification or economies of scale." } ], "note": "Duplicated back-office functions; reached over merger.integrationYears." }, "merger.integrationYears": { "id": "merger.integrationYears", "label": "Years for a merger to reach its full saving", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "years", "central": 3, "low": 2, "high": 5, "sources": [], "note": "Savings phase in evenly." }, "exit.yearsInsolvent": { "id": "exit.yearsInsolvent", "label": "Years a provider can remain unable to pay its way before it closes", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "years", "central": 2, "low": 1, "high": 3, "sources": [], "note": "If no partner can be found, a provider below the insolvency threshold for this many consecutive years closes. England has no special administration regime for universities; how long lenders, the OfS and government would let a provider continue is untested." }, "exit.homeTransferShare": { "id": "exit.homeTransferShare", "label": "Continuing home students of a closed provider who finish their courses elsewhere", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.5, "low": 0.25, "high": 0.75, "sources": [], "note": "Student protection plans aim to move continuing students. Those placed go to providers in the closed provider's region first, then elsewhere in England, within each receiving provider's capacity (exit.receiverCapacity), and stay only until they would have finished. The rest lose their place. Future applicants are a separate assumption (exit.applicantShare)." }, "exit.intlTransferShare": { "id": "exit.intlTransferShare", "label": "Continuing international students of a closed provider who finish their courses at another English provider", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.25, "low": 0, "high": 0.5, "sources": [], "note": "International students are mobile but sensitive to disruption, and some return home or transfer abroad. Those placed stay until they would have finished. Closures may also harm the UK's reputation, which the model does not include." }, "exit.applicantShare": { "id": "exit.applicantShare", "label": "Home applicants who would have gone to a closed provider and enrol elsewhere instead", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.75, "low": 0.5, "high": 0.9, "sources": [], "note": "Demand for places follows the number of 18-year-olds, not the number of providers, so most of a closed provider's future applicants apply elsewhere, in its region first. The rest do not enter higher education, which is what the regional access gauge records. Placed within receiving providers' capacity (exit.receiverCapacity)." }, "exit.intlApplicantShare": { "id": "exit.intlApplicantShare", "label": "International applicants who would have gone to a closed provider and choose another English provider", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.5, "low": 0.25, "high": 0.75, "sources": [], "note": "International applicants choose between countries as well as providers, so fewer stay in England than home applicants." }, "exit.receiverCapacity": { "id": "exit.receiverCapacity", "label": "Most extra students a provider can take from closed providers", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of its own students", "central": 0.2, "low": 0.1, "high": 0.35, "sources": [], "note": "A limit on teaching space, staff and accommodation. Continuing students taken over in any year are at most this share of the receiving provider's own students; its extra entrants from closed providers' applicants, over all closures together, at most this share of its own entrants. Beyond it, students are placed further away or lost. Without a limit, a small provider surrounded by closures could absorb several times its own size." }, "costs.variableShareOfFees": { "id": "costs.variableShareOfFees", "label": "Direct costs that move with student numbers", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of fee income", "central": 0.2, "low": 0.1, "high": 0.4, "sources": [ { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Annex D scenarios: 'assumed direct cost savings (equivalent to 20 per cent of the fee income)' when students fall short of forecast." } ], "note": "Teaching materials, hourly-paid teaching, student services and some estates costs follow students; most costs do not, and change only when providers decide to cut (the decision ladder). Applied to the difference between fee income and what it would be at 2024-25 student numbers." }, "shocks.recruitmentSd": { "id": "shocks.recruitmentSd", "label": "Year-to-year variation in a provider's recruitment", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "standard deviation of log growth", "central": 0.051, "low": 0.035, "high": 0.07, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Income growth relative to the group median in the same year, providers with income over £20m, 2016/17-2024/25: robust standard deviation 5.1 per cent (1,219 provider-years)." } ], "note": "Every provider's student numbers and other earned income get their own seeded random shocks each year, so providers diverge as real ones do. Measured on total income and applied to fees and other earned income (about 85 per cent of income), so the model's variation is slightly smaller than the measured one." }, "shocks.recruitmentPersistence": { "id": "shocks.recruitmentPersistence", "label": "Persistence of recruitment shocks", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "autocorrelation of growth", "central": 0.26, "low": 0.1, "high": 0.4, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Rank correlation between a provider's relative income growth in consecutive years: 0.26 (1,064 pairs)." } ], "note": "A good year tends to be followed by another; the shocks accumulate, so a provider's recruitment can drift well away from its group over ten years, as in the data." }, "history.marginPersistentShare": { "id": "history.marginPersistentShare", "label": "Share of a provider's 2024-25 margin gap from its group that is lasting", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.86, "low": 0.75, "high": 0.95, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Provider margins relative to their group's median carry over at 0.686 after one year, 0.548 after two and 0.466 after three (1,870 and 1,618 pairs, 2016/17-2024/25, winsorised). A lasting part that closes about a fifth each year, plus a one-off part, fits all three: 0.86 x 0.80^k." } ], "note": "The 2024-25 accounts include one-off items. The model projects costs forward from 2024-25, so without this a one-off in that year would last for ever. From 2025-26, 14 per cent of each provider's margin gap from its group is removed (in its other operating costs); each group's totals are unchanged, because the gaps add up to zero." }, "shocks.marginNoiseSd": { "id": "shocks.marginNoiseSd", "label": "One-off items in a provider's accounts each year", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "standard deviation, fraction of income", "central": 0.024, "low": 0.015, "high": 0.035, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Robust standard deviation of provider margins relative to their group: 6.35 per cent; the one-off share of that variance is 14 per cent (see history.marginPersistentShare), a standard deviation of 2.4 per cent of income." } ], "note": "Independent each year, seeded, and the same under every policy. Added to other operating costs. Together with recruitment shocks it is why providers move in and out of deficit as real ones do." }, "history.deficitAlsoPriorYear": { "id": "history.deficitAlsoPriorYear", "label": "Providers in deficit in 2024-25 that were also in deficit in 2023-24", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "strong", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.652, "low": 0.6, "high": 0.7, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Of the 89 HESA providers in deficit in 2024/25, 65.2 per cent were also in deficit in 2023/24 and 48.3 per cent in both 2023/24 and 2022/23." } ], "note": "Sets each synthetic provider's run of deficits at the start, so a provider already in its third deficit year acts sooner than one in its first." }, "history.deficitAlsoTwoYearsBefore": { "id": "history.deficitAlsoTwoYearsBefore", "label": "Providers in deficit in 2024-25, 2023-24 and 2022-23", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "strong", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.483, "low": 0.43, "high": 0.53, "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "As history.deficitAlsoPriorYear." } ], "note": "As history.deficitAlsoPriorYear." }, "stocks.experienceTimeConstant": { "id": "stocks.experienceTimeConstant", "label": "Time for student experience to respond to resources", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "years", "central": 2, "low": 1, "high": 4, "sources": [], "note": "The design brief's two to three years for staff cuts to show up in student experience: larger classes are felt at once, survey results and continuation a year or two later." }, "stocks.researchTimeConstant": { "id": "stocks.researchTimeConstant", "label": "Time for research standing to respond to research activity", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "years", "central": 4, "low": 3, "high": 7, "sources": [], "note": "Outputs lag funding and people by years; standing is what the next REF measures." }, "stocks.reputationTimeConstant": { "id": "stocks.reputationTimeConstant", "label": "Time for reputation to respond to experience and research", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "years", "central": 5, "low": 3, "high": 8, "sources": [], "note": "League tables use rolling data and applicants' views change slowly." }, "experience.ssrElasticity": { "id": "experience.ssrElasticity", "label": "Response of student experience to the student-staff ratio", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "elasticity", "central": 0.5, "low": 0.2, "high": 1, "sources": [], "note": "A 10 per cent rise in students per member of staff lowers the experience index by about 5 per cent. There is no robust causal estimate for English universities; this is the model's most important unmeasured link." }, "experience.estateElasticity": { "id": "experience.estateElasticity", "label": "Response of student experience to the condition of the estate", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "elasticity", "central": 0.3, "low": 0.1, "high": 0.5, "sources": [ { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Annex: providers reported that without investment 'parts of estates could become unfit for purpose, and this could materially affect the student experience'." } ], "note": "Estate condition is 1 less the maintenance backlog as a share of five years of normal capital spending." }, "demand.homeReputationElasticity": { "id": "demand.homeReputationElasticity", "label": "Response of home recruitment to reputation", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "elasticity", "central": 0.5, "low": 0.2, "high": 1, "sources": [ { "title": "Student satisfaction, league tables and university applications: Evidence from Britain (Economics of Education Review 48, 2015, pp. 148-164)", "publisher": "Gibbons, Neumayer and Perkins", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecoedu/v48y2015icp148-164.html", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "NSS scores have a small but statistically significant effect on applications, operating through league-table position; larger for more able students and departments facing more competition." } ], "note": "Applications respond to reputation, but modestly. The model's reputation index is not a league-table rank, so the elasticity is a judgement informed by the study, not an estimate from it." }, "demand.intlReputationElasticity": { "id": "demand.intlReputationElasticity", "label": "Response of international recruitment to reputation", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "elasticity", "central": 1, "low": 0.5, "high": 2, "sources": [], "note": "International applicants rely more on rankings than home applicants, so the response is taken as twice as large. This is the loop by which research cuts eventually cost international students." }, "research.qrQualityElasticity": { "id": "research.qrQualityElasticity", "label": "Response of QR funding to research standing at the REF", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "elasticity", "central": 1, "low": 0.5, "high": 1.5, "sources": [ { "title": "REF 2029", "publisher": "UK higher education funding bodies", "url": "https://2029.ref.ac.uk/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "REF outcomes inform the allocation of about £2bn a year of research funding; submissions in autumn 2028, results in December 2029." } ], "note": "QR is shared by quality-weighted research volume, so a provider's share moves roughly in proportion to its research standing relative to everyone else's. The total is set by the QR lever." }, "research.refFundingFromYear": { "id": "research.refFundingFromYear", "label": "First academic year funded on REF 2029 results", "kind": "accounting", "evidence": "strong", "unit": "academic year (starting)", "central": 2030, "sources": [ { "title": "REF 2029", "publisher": "UK higher education funding bodies", "url": "https://2029.ref.ac.uk/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Results December 2029." } ], "note": "Results in December 2029 inform allocations from 2030-31, as REF 2021 results (May 2022) did from 2022-23. Research standing is read in 2028-29, the year of submission." }, "intl.visaFrictionEffect": { "id": "intl.visaFrictionEffect", "label": "Effect of visa costs and friction on international entrants", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of entrants per step", "central": 0.05, "low": 0.02, "high": 0.1, "sources": [], "note": "A step from 'as now' to 'higher' (or 'lower') changes international entrants by this fraction. Visa and health surcharge costs add several thousand pounds to a degree; the effect is scaled to be smaller than the levy's, which is passed on in fees." }, "intl.sponsorComplianceEffect": { "id": "intl.sponsorComplianceEffect", "label": "Effect of the sponsor compliance regime on international entrants", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of entrants per step", "central": 0.03, "low": 0, "high": 0.06, "sources": [], "note": "Stringent thresholds make providers and agents refuse riskier applicants; light ones the reverse." }, "intl.sponsorComplianceCost": { "id": "intl.sponsorComplianceCost", "label": "Cost of sponsor compliance today", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "£ per international student a year", "central": 120, "low": 50, "high": 250, "sources": [], "note": "Compliance teams, attendance monitoring and checks. Changes with the regime: half as much again when stringent, half when light." }, "research.refCostPerYear": { "id": "research.refCostPerYear", "label": "Cost of the REF to institutions", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "£m a year, sector", "central": 65, "low": 45, "high": 90, "sources": [ { "title": "Cost of REF doubled to £471 million for 2021 exercise", "publisher": "Times Higher Education (reporting Technopolis for the UK funding bodies)", "url": "https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/cost-ref-doubled-ps471-million-2021-exercise", "retrieved": "2026-10-05", "supports": "REF 2021 cost about £471m, of which £454m fell on institutions, over a seven-year cycle; staff time was the main cost." } ], "note": "£454m over REF 2021's seven-year cycle. Shared among providers in proportion to their research spending. A light-touch REF halves it; an annual one doubles it; abolition removes it." }, "outcomes.entrantEffect": { "id": "outcomes.entrantEffect", "label": "Home entrants affected by changing outcomes thresholds", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of entrants at small and Level 4-5 providers", "central": 0.05, "low": 0.02, "high": 0.1, "sources": [], "note": "Stringent thresholds close this share of provision at smaller and Level 4-5 providers, where weak outcomes concentrate (the OfS has investigated franchised provision with poor outcomes, much of it at such providers); relaxed thresholds let it grow by as much." }, "earnings.emphasisElasticity": { "id": "earnings.emphasisElasticity", "label": "How much an emphasis on graduate earnings steers closures", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "elasticity", "central": 2, "low": 1, "high": 3, "sources": [], "note": "With a strong emphasis on earnings, a subject's chance of closure is scaled by (average graduate earnings / its graduates' earnings) to this power, so arts and humanities go first. The brief's point: what is measured changes what institutions do." }, "places.earningsTargeting": { "id": "places.earningsTargeting", "label": "How sharply a targeted cut in places falls on low-earning subjects", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "elasticity", "central": 2, "low": 1, "high": 3, "sources": [], "note": "When a cut in home undergraduate places is aimed at courses with low graduate earnings, each subject's share of the cut is scaled by (average graduate earnings / its graduates' earnings) to this power, with no subject losing more than 95 per cent of its entrants. Parties proposing targeted cuts have not said how courses would be chosen; this is one reading, using the same earnings data (LEO) as the rest of the model." }, "regulation.tefShareOfCompliance": { "id": "regulation.tefShareOfCompliance", "label": "Share of compliance cost that is the TEF", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of compliance cost", "central": 0.1, "low": 0.05, "high": 0.2, "sources": [], "note": "TEF submissions are one exercise among many; its cost changes in proportion to the setting (abolished, simplified, as now, expanded)." }, "access.costShareOfHomeFees": { "id": "access.costShareOfHomeFees", "label": "Cost of meeting access regulation, at the margin", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of home undergraduate fee income", "central": 0.02, "low": 0.01, "high": 0.04, "sources": [], "note": "The part of providers' access and participation spending driven by regulation rather than their own aims; it changes by half for 'light' or 'intensive'. No sector-wide figure for providers' own access spending is published." }, "monitoring.cautionDaysShift": { "id": "monitoring.cautionDaysShift", "label": "How much earlier preventative monitoring makes providers act", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "days of cash", "central": 30, "low": 15, "high": 60, "sources": [], "note": "Preventative monitoring raises the cash level at which providers start saving by this much, and makes providers in serious distress look for partners before their cash runs out; reactive monitoring lowers it as much." }, "merger.regimeEffect": { "id": "merger.regimeEffect", "label": "Effect of the merger regime on the chance of a merger", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.5, "low": 0.25, "high": 0.75, "sources": [], "note": "A facilitated regime raises the chance of finding a willing partner by this fraction, and cuts merger costs by as much; a difficult one does the reverse." }, "resolution.partnerChanceFactor": { "id": "resolution.partnerChanceFactor", "label": "Restructuring regime: improvement in the chance of a merger", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "multiple", "central": 1.5, "low": 1.2, "high": 2, "sources": [ { "title": "Higher Education and Funding: Threat of Insolvency and International Students: Government Response", "publisher": "House of Commons Education Committee", "url": "https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5902/cmselect/cmeduc/566/report.html", "retrieved": "2026-10-05", "supports": "Government rejected a special administration regime, citing legal complexity, lender confidence and the limits of what it could preserve." } ], "note": "Under a formal regime someone convenes lenders, the governing body and receiving institutions early, so more distressed providers find a partner — starting when cash is low after repeated deficits, before it runs out." }, "resolution.homeTransferShare": { "id": "resolution.homeTransferShare", "label": "Restructuring regime: home students moved when a provider closes", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.85, "low": 0.7, "high": 0.95, "sources": [], "note": "Receiving capacity is arranged in advance, so most continuing students are placed (still within each receiving provider's capacity). Without a regime the model assumes half." }, "resolution.intlTransferShare": { "id": "resolution.intlTransferShare", "label": "Restructuring regime: international students moved when a provider closes", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction", "central": 0.5, "low": 0.3, "high": 0.7, "sources": [], "note": "Against a quarter without a regime." }, "resolution.costPerStudent": { "id": "resolution.costPerStudent", "label": "Restructuring regime: public cost of each student moved", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "£ per student", "central": 3000, "low": 1500, "high": 6000, "sources": [], "note": "Temporary funding for teach-out and transfer, borne by the taxpayer (the book leaves the source open: lending, a levy or insurance)." }, "resolution.lenderPremium": { "id": "resolution.lenderPremium", "label": "Restructuring regime: extra cost of borrowing", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of borrowing a year", "central": 0.0025, "low": 0, "high": 0.01, "sources": [ { "title": "Higher Education and Funding: Threat of Insolvency and International Students: Government Response", "publisher": "House of Commons Education Committee", "url": "https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5902/cmselect/cmeduc/566/report.html", "retrieved": "2026-10-05", "supports": "Government rejected a special administration regime, citing legal complexity, lender confidence and the limits of what it could preserve." } ], "note": "Government's objection that a regime might unsettle lenders, entered as a quarter of a point on every provider's interest." }, "home.maintenanceEffect": { "id": "home.maintenanceEffect", "label": "Effect of maintenance support on home entrants", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "moderate", "unit": "fraction of home entrants per £1,000", "central": 0.04, "low": 0.02, "high": 0.06, "sources": [ { "title": "Money for nothing: Estimating the impact of student aid on participation in higher education (Economics of Education Review 43, 2014, pp. 66-78)", "publisher": "Dearden, Fitzsimons and Wyness", "url": "https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:43:y:2014:i:c:p:66-78", "retrieved": "2026-10-05", "supports": "A £1,000 increase in maintenance grants raised higher education participation by 3.95 percentage points." } ], "note": "3.95 percentage points of participation per £1,000 is about a tenth more entrants among students eligible for grants; with roughly two in five students eligible, about 4 per cent overall." }, "government.maintenanceEligibleShare": { "id": "government.maintenanceEligibleShare", "label": "Share of home undergraduates eligible for a maintenance grant", "kind": "empirical", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "fraction of home undergraduates", "central": 0.4, "low": 0.35, "high": 0.5, "sources": [ { "title": "Abolition of maintenance grants in England from 2016/17 (CBP-7258)", "publisher": "House of Commons Library", "url": "https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7258/", "retrieved": "2026-10-05", "supports": "About 550,000 full or partial maintenance grants were awarded in 2015/16, the last year of the old scheme: roughly two in five English-domiciled undergraduates." } ], "note": "The maintenance support control is the extra grant for each eligible student; its cost is that amount times this share of home undergraduates. Proposals that name a coverage (the Liberal Democrats' 35 per cent, rising to 50) are close to this range." }, "politics.migrationSensitivity": { "id": "politics.migrationSensitivity", "label": "How fast concern about migration rises with international numbers", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "mood points per proportional change", "central": 250, "low": 100, "high": 400, "sources": [ { "title": "Public supports immigration from international students, finds new study", "publisher": "British Future", "url": "https://www.britishfuture.org/public-supports-immigration-from-international-students-finds-new-study/", "retrieved": "2026-10-06", "supports": "61 per cent want international student numbers to stay the same or rise; 27 per cent want them reduced." } ], "note": "Concern is 50 at 2024-25's international numbers and reaches 100 at a fifth more. Most of the public supports international students, but their numbers count towards net migration, which governments have repeatedly acted to cut (the 2024 dependants rule, the levy, the shorter Graduate Route)." }, "politics.closureBase": { "id": "politics.closureBase", "label": "Concern about closures with none", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "mood points", "central": 20, "low": 10, "high": 40, "sources": [], "note": "The starting level: the crisis has low salience until it becomes concrete." }, "politics.closurePerClosure": { "id": "politics.closurePerClosure", "label": "Rise in concern about closures with each provider that closes", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "weak", "unit": "mood points per closure", "central": 8, "low": 4, "high": 15, "sources": [ { "title": "Mass university closures would worry seven in 10 people, with UK government getting blame, survey finds", "publisher": "King's College London Policy Institute", "url": "https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/mass-university-closures-would-worry-seven-in-10-people-with-uk-government-getting-blame-survey-finds", "retrieved": "2026-10-06", "supports": "68 per cent would be worried if 30-40 universities closed because of funding; 61 per cent would blame the UK government." } ], "note": "Closures make the crisis concrete: seven in ten would worry if 30-40 universities closed, and most would blame the government. Concern reaches the reaction threshold after about seven closures." }, "politics.closurePerAtRisk": { "id": "politics.closurePerAtRisk", "label": "Rise in concern about closures with each extra provider at serious risk", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "mood points per provider", "central": 1, "low": 0.5, "high": 2, "sources": [], "note": "Providers at serious risk above 2024-25's number, as reported in the press." }, "politics.feeSensitivity": { "id": "politics.feeSensitivity", "label": "How fast concern about fees rises with the real fee", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "mood points per proportional change", "central": 250, "low": 100, "high": 400, "sources": [], "note": "Concern is 50 at the 2024-25 fee in real terms and reaches 100 at a fifth more." }, "politics.spendingSensitivity": { "id": "politics.spendingSensitivity", "label": "How fast concern about spending rises with the public cost of universities", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "mood points per proportional change", "central": 250, "low": 100, "high": 400, "sources": [], "note": "Concern is 50 at 2024-25's real public cost and reaches 100 at a fifth more." }, "politics.reactionThreshold": { "id": "politics.reactionThreshold", "label": "Mood at which the government may react", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "mood points", "central": 75, "low": 60, "high": 90, "sources": [], "note": "Below this, nothing happens." }, "politics.reactionChance": { "id": "politics.reactionChance", "label": "Chance a year that the government reacts when mood is at its height", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "probability a year", "central": 0.4, "low": 0.2, "high": 0.7, "sources": [], "note": "The chance rises from nothing at the threshold to this at 100; each reaction happens at most once, the following academic year." }, "politics.teachingGrantCut": { "id": "politics.teachingGrantCut", "label": "Cut to the teaching grant when concern about spending is high", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of the grant", "central": 0.2, "low": 0.1, "high": 0.3, "sources": [], "note": "The grant is the most discretionary large item in the ledger." }, "executive.salaryShare": { "id": "executive.salaryShare", "label": "Executive salaries as a share of total salaries", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of salaries", "central": 0.01, "low": 0.005, "high": 0.02, "sources": [ { "title": "University vice-chancellor pay, performance and (asymmetric) benchmarking (2018)", "publisher": "Kent Academic Repository", "url": "https://kar.kent.ac.uk/71749/", "retrieved": "2026-10-14", "supports": "Exploratory analysis found no statistically significant evidence linking changes in pay and performance. This informs the omission of a direct performance response; it does not estimate executive payroll or severance costs." } ], "note": "Illustrative 1% executive salary pool, not a measured sector estimate. Applied to each provider’s salary bill after ordinary pay growth, staffing/research changes and merger savings. Covers the vice-chancellor and other senior executives, not all professional services staff. The model has no executive payroll dataset; the same share is assumed across all seven provider groups. Employer on-costs use the provider group’s blended rate and change proportionally. Fixed benefits, pension caps and individual NI thresholds are not separately modelled. Evidence supports caution about wider performance effects, not this cost-base value. Set this share to zero to remove all direct executive-policy costs and savings." }, "executive.severanceMultiple": { "id": "executive.severanceMultiple", "label": "Executive severance cost per annual salary cost removed", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "multiple", "central": 0.75, "low": 0, "high": 1.5, "sources": [], "note": "Illustrative one-off transition cost when executive headcount falls: 0.75 times the annual employer cost of the posts removed, before any simultaneous change in salary rates. Not a measured estimate for executives and not a legal entitlement. Charged only on the reduction from the preceding year’s headcount setting; salary reductions alone incur no severance. Management-capacity effects, recruitment expenses for added posts, contractual delays and fixed benefits are not quantified." }, "executive.meanSalary": { "id": "executive.meanSalary", "label": "Mean executive salary in the base year", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "£ per executive a year", "central": 200000, "low": 150000, "high": 300000, "sources": [], "note": "Illustrative arithmetic mean of executive salaries in 2024–25, not a measured sector figure. Used with a lognormal distribution only to estimate the share of payroll affected by salary caps and ratios; the total executive pool still comes from executive.salaryShare. Grows with ordinary pay, the remuneration control and experimental progression. The same hypothetical distribution is used in all provider groups; individual salaries, posts and benefits are not observed." }, "executive.salaryLogSd": { "id": "executive.salaryLogSd", "label": "Spread of executive salaries (lognormal)", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "standard deviation of log salary", "central": 0.35, "low": 0.15, "high": 0.6, "sources": [], "note": "Illustrative dispersion of individual executive salaries around the assumed arithmetic mean. A lognormal distribution ensures positive salaries and permits a cap to affect only the upper tail. Not fitted to observed executive pay. Zero gives identical salaries. Constraints are evaluated afresh against the unconstrained salary path each year, with no contractual delay or pay stickiness." }, "executive.medianStaffSalary": { "id": "executive.medianStaffSalary", "label": "Median staff salary in the base year", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "£ per staff member a year", "central": 35000, "low": 30000, "high": 45000, "sources": [], "note": "Illustrative 2024–25 median salary for the denominator of the executive/staff salary ratio, not an observed median or the HESA mean salary. It follows the ordinary pay index, independently of executive policy; changing executive headcount does not change this median. The ratio and statutory-style ceiling both constrain salary, with proportional employer on-costs, not separately assessed total benefits." }, "executive.benchmarkPremium": { "id": "executive.benchmarkPremium", "label": "Annual executive pay ratchet removed by symmetric benchmarking", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "annual rate", "central": 0.005, "low": 0, "high": 0.02, "sources": [ { "title": "Keeping up with Academic Jones’: Benchmarking and University Vice Chancellors’ Pay in the UK (2023)", "publisher": "Kent Academic Repository", "url": "https://kar.kent.ac.uk/103541/", "retrieved": "2026-10-14", "supports": "The abstract reports asymmetric benchmarking and recommends symmetric benchmarking to prevent upward ratcheting. It does not supply the annual premium used here or validate this simplified counterfactual." } ], "note": "Hypothetical annual premium treated as embedded in the current executive pay path. Symmetric benchmarking divides that path by (1 + premium) for each year the rule operates. This is a reduced-form counterfactual, not an estimated causal coefficient, an explicit peer-network simulation or a replication of Gmeiner et al. The current pay path is unchanged when this experiment is off. Accumulated progression differences persist if a later schedule changes the rule." }, "executive.performanceAwardLimit": { "id": "executive.performanceAwardLimit", "label": "Maximum annual performance-linked executive pay adjustment", "kind": "assumption", "evidence": "none", "unit": "fraction of salary", "central": 0.02, "low": 0, "high": 0.05, "sources": [], "note": "Hypothetical annual progression rule: take the previous year’s mean experience and research-standing index relative to 2024–25, subtract one, then clip to plus/minus this limit. Multiply the executive pay path by one plus this adjustment. A score of 0.99 gives a 1% reduction relative to ordinary pay growth; scores of 0.98 or below reach the central 2% limit. Scores above one permit increases. This is a salary response to past model outcomes, not a claim that higher pay causes better outcomes. No direct leadership-quality, recruitment, retention or morale response is modelled." } }, "archetypes": [ { "id": "largeResearch", "label": "Large research-intensive university", "shortLabel": "Research-intensive", "ofsGroup": "Larger research-intensive", "providers": 21, "description": "Income over £200m, with less than 70% of it from teaching. The big research universities: large research portfolios, heavy international recruitment and the largest balance sheets.", "definition": "Teaching income (tuition fees and OfS grants) of more than £200m a year, making up less than 70% of all its income. Most of the rest comes from research grants and contracts.", "typical": "The big research universities, most with 20,000 to 35,000 students. Almost all are members of the Russell Group.", "tracPeerGroup": "A", "tracMappingNote": "Research grants are 22% of income; most members have medical schools.", "liquidityDays": { "lowerQuartile": 97, "mean": 136, "upperQuartile": 174 }, "base": { "income": { "homeUG": 2804, "homePGT": 552, "homePGR": 109, "intlUG": 2642, "intlPGT": 2536, "intlPGR": 464, "educationContracts": 723, "fundingBodyGrants": 2350, "researchGrants": 5191, "otherIncome": 5044, "investmentIncome": 615, "donations": 517 }, "reportedIncome": 23547, "expenditure": { "staff": 12402, "restructuring": 42, "otherOperating": 8792, "depreciation": 1506, "interest": 253 }, "reportedExpenditure": 22997, "reportedSurplus": 550, "netLiquidity": 7992.2, "reportedLiquidityDays": 136, "borrowing": 7722, "netAssets": 38369, "students": { "homeUG": 304060, "homePGT": 40055, "homePGR": 25695, "intlUG": 98195, "intlPGT": 79910, "intlPGR": 25080 }, "providerForecast": { "2025-26": { "income": 24320, "surplus": 402 }, "2026-27": { "income": 25314, "surplus": 563 }, "2027-28": { "income": 26362, "surplus": 674 }, "2028-29": { "income": 27507, "surplus": 887 } } }, "trac": { "peerGroup": "A", "researchCostShare": 0.476213, "recovery": { "publiclyFundedTeaching": 0.8436539999999999, "nonPubliclyFundedTeaching": 1.792875, "research": 0.70489, "researchCouncils": 0.709766, "ukCharities": 0.5693509999999999, "total": 0.9719549999999999 } }, "distributions": { "providers": 20, "totals": { "incomeM": 22710.1, "adjustedExpenditureM": 22132.8, "netLiquidityM": 8060.2, "borrowingM": 7122 }, "size": { "logIncomeSd": 0.566 }, "margin": { "quantiles": { "p5": -0.0187, "p10": -0.0096, "p25": -0.0007, "p50": 0.0114, "p75": 0.0467, "p90": 0.0576, "p95": 0.0669 }, "sd": 0.0372, "deficits": 6, "above10": 0 }, "liquidityDays": { "providers": 20, "quantiles": { "p5": 52.9, "p10": 87.8, "p25": 98.2, "p50": 120.8, "p75": 178.3, "p90": 203.7, "p95": 220.7 }, "lowLiquidity": 0 }, "international": { "providers": 20, "noneShare": 0, "feeShareQuantiles": { "p5": 0.3967, "p10": 0.4507, "p25": 0.5045, "p50": 0.6069, "p75": 0.6579, "p90": 0.7585, "p95": 0.7971 }, "logRelativeSd": 0.211 }, "correlations": { "sizeMargin": 0.349, "marginLiquidity": -0.002, "sizeLiquidity": 0.141, "sizeIntl": 0.686 }, "capexToDepreciation": 1.3506, "staff": { "providers": 20, "oncostRate": 0.2504, "socialSecurityRate": 0.1121, "pensionRateBySchemeOfSalaries": { "uss": 0.102, "tps": 0, "lgps": 0.0001, "other": 0.0362 }, "meanSalaryPerFte": 53996.5329 }, "grants": { "ofsTeachingShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.2147, "researchEnglandShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.5905 }, "research": { "researchCouncilShareOfResearchIncome": 0.3698 } }, "regions": { "North East": 2, "North West": 2, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 3, "East Midlands": 0, "West Midlands": 2, "East of England": 1, "London": 6, "South East": 3, "South West": 2 }, "subjects": { "mix": [ 0.07971, 0.0171, 0.01972, 0.0355, 0.01135, 0.01992, 0.00257, 0.11624, 0.04441, 0.04386, 0.00849, 0.00187, 0.04831, 0.03898, 0.10064, 0.05172, 0.01496, 0.04534, 0.11728, 0.04918, 0.05641, 0.01231, 0.01727, 0.01595, 0.03092 ], "largestSubjectShare": 0.147, "largestSubjectCounts": [ 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 6, 0, 0, 0, 8, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } }, { "id": "largeTeaching", "label": "Large teaching-intensive university", "shortLabel": "Teaching-intensive", "ofsGroup": "Larger teaching-intensive", "providers": 14, "description": "Income over £200m, more than 70% of it from teaching. Large, mostly post-1992 universities that depend on home undergraduate fees.", "definition": "Teaching income of more than £200m a year, making up more than 70% of all its income: it depends on tuition fees far more than on research.", "typical": "Large universities, most with 22,000 to 32,000 students. Most are former polytechnics, which became universities in 1992.", "tracPeerGroup": "D", "tracMappingNote": "Research grants are 3.7% of income and every member has income above £150m, matching TRAC group D.", "liquidityDays": { "lowerQuartile": 93, "mean": 143, "upperQuartile": 184 }, "base": { "income": { "homeUG": 2370, "homePGT": 235, "homePGR": 16, "intlUG": 618, "intlPGT": 572, "intlPGR": 29, "educationContracts": 60, "fundingBodyGrants": 506, "researchGrants": 190, "otherIncome": 443, "investmentIncome": 97, "donations": 12 }, "reportedIncome": 5147, "expenditure": { "staff": 3064, "restructuring": 58, "otherOperating": 1735, "depreciation": 334, "interest": 41 }, "reportedExpenditure": 5233, "reportedSurplus": -86, "netLiquidity": 1916.6, "reportedLiquidityDays": 143, "borrowing": 899, "netAssets": 5803, "students": { "homeUG": 290070, "homePGT": 26655, "homePGR": 4215, "intlUG": 36580, "intlPGT": 40240, "intlPGR": 2565 }, "providerForecast": { "2025-26": { "income": 5310, "surplus": -11 }, "2026-27": { "income": 5467, "surplus": 36 }, "2027-28": { "income": 5643, "surplus": 75 }, "2028-29": { "income": 5812, "surplus": 121 } } }, "trac": { "peerGroup": "D", "researchCostShare": 0.144812, "recovery": { "publiclyFundedTeaching": 0.937822, "nonPubliclyFundedTeaching": 1.163273, "research": 0.44264400000000004, "researchCouncils": 0.624518, "ukCharities": 0.515955, "total": 0.927898 } }, "distributions": { "providers": 14, "totals": { "incomeM": 5146.7, "adjustedExpenditureM": 5232.8, "netLiquidityM": 1941, "borrowingM": 802 }, "size": { "logIncomeSd": 0.224 }, "margin": { "quantiles": { "p5": -0.1335, "p10": -0.0883, "p25": -0.0274, "p50": -0.0002, "p75": 0.0205, "p90": 0.0401, "p95": 0.0482 }, "sd": 0.0627, "deficits": 7, "above10": 0 }, "liquidityDays": { "providers": 14, "quantiles": { "p5": 72.9, "p10": 80.7, "p25": 94.6, "p50": 126.3, "p75": 183.9, "p90": 232, "p95": 301.3 }, "lowLiquidity": 0 }, "international": { "providers": 14, "noneShare": 0, "feeShareQuantiles": { "p5": 0.0847, "p10": 0.1188, "p25": 0.2128, "p50": 0.3038, "p75": 0.3867, "p90": 0.5579, "p95": 0.6362 }, "logRelativeSd": 0.639 }, "correlations": { "sizeMargin": 0.121, "marginLiquidity": 0.169, "sizeLiquidity": -0.292, "sizeIntl": -0.182 }, "capexToDepreciation": 1.0061, "staff": { "providers": 14, "oncostRate": 0.3115, "socialSecurityRate": 0.1122, "pensionRateBySchemeOfSalaries": { "uss": 0.0221, "tps": 0.1076, "lgps": 0.064, "other": 0.0056 }, "meanSalaryPerFte": 46852.8181 }, "grants": { "ofsTeachingShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.4085, "researchEnglandShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.2439 }, "research": { "researchCouncilShareOfResearchIncome": 0.3399 } }, "regions": { "North East": 1, "North West": 3, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 1, "East Midlands": 2, "West Midlands": 2, "East of England": 2, "London": 0, "South East": 2, "South West": 1 }, "subjects": { "mix": [ 0.00849, 0.07542, 0.0373, 0.04515, 0.01615, 0.02387, 0.01339, 0.0847, 0.03421, 0.0668, 0.0014, 0.00374, 0.01751, 0.01057, 0.05526, 0.08808, 0.0337, 0.05015, 0.18794, 0.01909, 0.01403, 0.02539, 0.01375, 0.06188, 0.01203 ], "largestSubjectShare": 0.184, "largestSubjectCounts": [ 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } }, { "id": "medium", "label": "Medium-sized university", "shortLabel": "Medium", "ofsGroup": "Medium", "providers": 43, "description": "Income between £100m and £200m. The squeezed middle: teaching, some research and significant international recruitment without large reserves.", "definition": "Teaching income of £100m to £200m a year.", "typical": "Mid-sized universities, most with 10,000 to 20,000 students: post-1992 universities alongside smaller research universities, several of them founded in the 1960s.", "tracPeerGroup": "C", "tracMappingNote": "Research grants are 7% of income, within TRAC group C's 5-15% band.", "liquidityDays": { "lowerQuartile": 54, "mean": 111, "upperQuartile": 159 }, "base": { "income": { "homeUG": 4212, "homePGT": 413, "homePGR": 49, "intlUG": 1226, "intlPGT": 1046, "intlPGR": 93, "educationContracts": 142, "fundingBodyGrants": 1047, "researchGrants": 754, "otherIncome": 1584, "investmentIncome": 171, "donations": 114 }, "reportedIncome": 10851, "expenditure": { "staff": 5703, "restructuring": 94, "otherOperating": 4024, "depreciation": 854, "interest": 134 }, "reportedExpenditure": 10809, "reportedSurplus": 42, "netLiquidity": 3038.4, "reportedLiquidityDays": 111, "borrowing": 3077, "netAssets": 13401, "students": { "homeUG": 476865, "homePGT": 45215, "homePGR": 12855, "intlUG": 69885, "intlPGT": 66675, "intlPGR": 6910 }, "providerForecast": { "2025-26": { "income": 10754, "surplus": -213 }, "2026-27": { "income": 11080, "surplus": 24 }, "2027-28": { "income": 11641, "surplus": 152 }, "2028-29": { "income": 12178, "surplus": 269 } } }, "trac": { "peerGroup": "C", "researchCostShare": 0.16238399999999997, "recovery": { "publiclyFundedTeaching": 0.943198, "nonPubliclyFundedTeaching": 1.145697, "research": 0.508416, "researchCouncils": 0.656474, "ukCharities": 0.45811599999999997, "total": 0.9341280000000001 } }, "distributions": { "providers": 41, "totals": { "incomeM": 10355.2, "adjustedExpenditureM": 10265, "netLiquidityM": 3152.7, "borrowingM": 2553.4 }, "size": { "logIncomeSd": 0.361 }, "margin": { "quantiles": { "p5": -0.0961, "p10": -0.075, "p25": -0.047, "p50": 0.0144, "p75": 0.0357, "p90": 0.0535, "p95": 0.0809 }, "sd": 0.0616, "deficits": 16, "above10": 1 }, "liquidityDays": { "providers": 41, "quantiles": { "p5": 35.9, "p10": 44.3, "p25": 70.1, "p50": 118.1, "p75": 170.8, "p90": 219.8, "p95": 235.9 }, "lowLiquidity": 3 }, "international": { "providers": 41, "noneShare": 0, "feeShareQuantiles": { "p5": 0.0744, "p10": 0.1489, "p25": 0.2381, "p50": 0.339, "p75": 0.4169, "p90": 0.5074, "p95": 0.5481 }, "logRelativeSd": 0.632 }, "correlations": { "sizeMargin": 0.34, "marginLiquidity": 0.055, "sizeLiquidity": -0.09, "sizeIntl": 0.246 }, "capexToDepreciation": 1.1814, "staff": { "providers": 41, "oncostRate": 0.2917, "socialSecurityRate": 0.1134, "pensionRateBySchemeOfSalaries": { "uss": 0.0608, "tps": 0.0597, "lgps": 0.0441, "other": 0.0137 }, "meanSalaryPerFte": 48324.4838 }, "grants": { "ofsTeachingShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.3877, "researchEnglandShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.3536 }, "research": { "researchCouncilShareOfResearchIncome": 0.4083 } }, "regions": { "North East": 2, "North West": 4, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 4, "East Midlands": 4, "West Midlands": 4, "East of England": 3, "London": 11, "South East": 8, "South West": 3 }, "subjects": { "mix": [ 0.0158, 0.08789, 0.048, 0.04554, 0.01854, 0.01583, 0.01266, 0.08072, 0.04062, 0.0505, 0.0019, 0.00425, 0.01632, 0.00907, 0.05581, 0.07864, 0.02271, 0.04378, 0.24605, 0.01583, 0.01146, 0.00455, 0.01566, 0.0486, 0.00927 ], "largestSubjectShare": 0.218, "largestSubjectCounts": [ 0, 7, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 32, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0 ] } }, { "id": "smaller", "label": "Smaller university or college", "shortLabel": "Smaller", "ofsGroup": "Smaller", "providers": 53, "description": "Income under £100m. Mostly teaching-led, often regionally important, with thin reserves.", "definition": "Teaching income of less than £100m a year (or not known), for a provider that is neither a specialist nor teaching mainly below degree level.", "typical": "A varied group: small universities (many of which began as teacher-training or church colleges), university colleges and private providers. Most have fewer than 10,000 students and many fewer than 1,000.", "tracPeerGroup": "E", "tracMappingNote": "Research grants are 1.2% of income and incomes are below £150m, matching TRAC group E.", "liquidityDays": { "lowerQuartile": 47, "mean": 103, "upperQuartile": 137 }, "base": { "income": { "homeUG": 1427, "homePGT": 144, "homePGR": 9, "intlUG": 369, "intlPGT": 232, "intlPGR": 24, "educationContracts": 161, "fundingBodyGrants": 252, "researchGrants": 41, "otherIncome": 665, "investmentIncome": 68, "donations": 54 }, "reportedIncome": 3448, "expenditure": { "staff": 1557, "restructuring": 11, "otherOperating": 1531, "depreciation": 178, "interest": 41 }, "reportedExpenditure": 3318, "reportedSurplus": 130, "netLiquidity": 885.3, "reportedLiquidityDays": 103, "borrowing": 755, "netAssets": 3714, "students": { "homeUG": 167455, "homePGT": 19475, "homePGR": 2275, "intlUG": 17610, "intlPGT": 14055, "intlPGR": 2215 }, "providerForecast": { "2025-26": { "income": 3533, "surplus": 68 }, "2026-27": { "income": 3850, "surplus": 239 }, "2027-28": { "income": 4072, "surplus": 276 }, "2028-29": { "income": 4393, "surplus": 388 } } }, "trac": { "peerGroup": "E", "researchCostShare": 0.085811, "recovery": { "publiclyFundedTeaching": 0.940535, "nonPubliclyFundedTeaching": 1.10771, "research": 0.43837200000000004, "researchCouncils": 0.602337, "ukCharities": 0.528227, "total": 0.9413379999999999 } }, "distributions": { "providers": 49, "totals": { "incomeM": 3200.5, "adjustedExpenditureM": 3069.8, "netLiquidityM": 844, "borrowingM": 581.1 }, "size": { "logIncomeSd": 1.652 }, "margin": { "quantiles": { "p5": -0.34, "p10": -0.2347, "p25": -0.0796, "p50": 0.0139, "p75": 0.0694, "p90": 0.1834, "p95": 0.2731 }, "sd": 0.337, "deficits": 23, "above10": 9 }, "liquidityDays": { "providers": 49, "quantiles": { "p5": 6.7, "p10": 26.8, "p25": 47.1, "p50": 103.8, "p75": 145, "p90": 172.1, "p95": 198.8 }, "lowLiquidity": 8 }, "international": { "providers": 46, "noneShare": 0.13, "feeShareQuantiles": { "p5": 0, "p10": 0, "p25": 0.0465, "p50": 0.2053, "p75": 0.5419, "p90": 0.9019, "p95": 0.9851 }, "logRelativeSd": 1.585 }, "correlations": { "sizeMargin": 0.187, "marginLiquidity": 0.209, "sizeLiquidity": 0.099, "sizeIntl": 0.295 }, "capexToDepreciation": 1.4704, "staff": { "providers": 49, "oncostRate": 0.2783, "socialSecurityRate": 0.1101, "pensionRateBySchemeOfSalaries": { "uss": 0.0255, "tps": 0.0702, "lgps": 0.0415, "other": 0.031 }, "meanSalaryPerFte": 46190.4149 }, "grants": { "ofsTeachingShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.2989, "researchEnglandShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.172 }, "research": { "researchCouncilShareOfResearchIncome": 0.4074 } }, "regions": { "North East": 1, "North West": 6, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 3, "East Midlands": 2, "West Midlands": 5, "East of England": 4, "London": 18, "South East": 7, "South West": 7 }, "subjects": { "mix": [ 0.00524, 0.04468, 0.03136, 0.02461, 0.04002, 0.02178, 0.00883, 0.09915, 0.03194, 0.05748, 0.00146, 0.00998, 0.00171, 0.00155, 0.0176, 0.06151, 0.03094, 0.04105, 0.32106, 0.01921, 0.01973, 0.008, 0.01725, 0.07892, 0.00493 ], "largestSubjectShare": 0.43, "largestSubjectCounts": [ 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 0, 3, 0, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0, 3, 1, 0, 2, 24, 0, 0, 0, 0, 8, 0 ] } }, { "id": "specialist", "label": "Specialist institution", "shortLabel": "Specialist", "ofsGroup": "Specialist", "providers": 58, "description": "Institutions specialising in one field other than the creative arts, such as medicine, agriculture, business or law. Some are research-heavy, many are small.", "definition": "At least 75% of its students in one broad subject area, or at least 90% in two, where neither is creative arts and design. Specialism is tested before size, so a specialist can be any size.", "typical": "Theological and Bible colleges, medical, veterinary and health schools, business and law schools, agricultural universities and some postgraduate research institutes. Many are very small; a few are large or research-heavy.", "tracPeerGroup": "B", "tracMappingNote": "Research grants are 20% of income, the closest match to TRAC group B (research ≥15%, no medical-school criterion). Many smaller members are outside TRAC altogether.", "liquidityDays": { "lowerQuartile": 49, "mean": 101, "upperQuartile": 165 }, "base": { "income": { "homeUG": 159, "homePGT": 221, "homePGR": 5, "intlUG": 104, "intlPGT": 405, "intlPGR": 14, "educationContracts": 135, "fundingBodyGrants": 194, "researchGrants": 396, "otherIncome": 233, "investmentIncome": 23, "donations": 116 }, "reportedIncome": 2005, "expenditure": { "staff": 945, "restructuring": 3, "otherOperating": 853, "depreciation": 97, "interest": 15 }, "reportedExpenditure": 1913, "reportedSurplus": 92, "netLiquidity": 501.5, "reportedLiquidityDays": 101, "borrowing": 491, "netAssets": 2267, "students": { "homeUG": 18685, "homePGT": 15260, "homePGR": 775, "intlUG": 6410, "intlPGT": 23340, "intlPGR": 730 }, "providerForecast": { "2025-26": { "income": 2163, "surplus": 83 }, "2026-27": { "income": 2291, "surplus": 174 }, "2027-28": { "income": 2429, "surplus": 204 }, "2028-29": { "income": 2622, "surplus": 269 } } }, "trac": { "peerGroup": "B", "researchCostShare": 0.338592, "recovery": { "publiclyFundedTeaching": 0.859954, "nonPubliclyFundedTeaching": 1.4584739999999998, "research": 0.636506, "researchCouncils": 0.670139, "ukCharities": 0.458364, "total": 0.91429 } }, "distributions": { "providers": 45, "totals": { "incomeM": 1630.1, "adjustedExpenditureM": 1548.6, "netLiquidityM": 411.7, "borrowingM": 376.6 }, "size": { "logIncomeSd": 1.771 }, "margin": { "quantiles": { "p5": -0.2273, "p10": -0.1696, "p25": -0.0532, "p50": 0.017, "p75": 0.066, "p90": 0.1792, "p95": 0.2277 }, "sd": 0.1382, "deficits": 19, "above10": 8 }, "liquidityDays": { "providers": 45, "quantiles": { "p5": 25.5, "p10": 35.3, "p25": 59.2, "p50": 89.7, "p75": 168.4, "p90": 233.6, "p95": 247 }, "lowLiquidity": 5 }, "international": { "providers": 43, "noneShare": 0.186, "feeShareQuantiles": { "p5": 0, "p10": 0, "p25": 0.0631, "p50": 0.2172, "p75": 0.6031, "p90": 0.8568, "p95": 0.9481 }, "logRelativeSd": 1.112 }, "correlations": { "sizeMargin": 0.121, "marginLiquidity": 0.115, "sizeLiquidity": 0.075, "sizeIntl": 0.471 }, "capexToDepreciation": 1.4967, "staff": { "providers": 45, "oncostRate": 0.2254, "socialSecurityRate": 0.1113, "pensionRateBySchemeOfSalaries": { "uss": 0.0622, "tps": 0.007, "lgps": 0.0115, "other": 0.0334 }, "meanSalaryPerFte": 53285.1406 }, "grants": { "ofsTeachingShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.2668, "researchEnglandShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.382 }, "research": { "researchCouncilShareOfResearchIncome": 0.1483 } }, "regions": { "North East": 0, "North West": 5, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 1, "East Midlands": 4, "West Midlands": 1, "East of England": 5, "London": 27, "South East": 8, "South West": 7 }, "subjects": { "mix": [ 0.00878, 0.01203, 0.02081, 0.02964, 0.0011, 0.00587, 0.00017, 0.02546, 0.00494, 0.00238, 0.0311, 0.06004, 0.00105, 0.00041, 0.03005, 0.04807, 0.04086, 0.29393, 0.34298, 0.00052, 0.03022, 0.00378, 0.00279, 0.00081, 0.00221 ], "largestSubjectShare": 1, "largestSubjectCounts": [ 2, 0, 5, 5, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 1, 1, 3, 1, 8, 0, 16, 0, 1, 0, 0 ] } }, { "id": "specialistCreative", "label": "Specialist creative institution", "shortLabel": "Creative", "ofsGroup": "Specialist creative", "providers": 45, "description": "Arts, design, music, drama and conservatoires. High-cost teaching and the lowest liquidity of any university group.", "definition": "A specialist (at least 75% of students in one broad subject area, or 90% in two) where creative arts and design is one of the two.", "typical": "Conservatoires, drama and dance schools, art and design universities, film schools and popular music colleges. Mostly small, with costly studio and small-group teaching.", "tracPeerGroup": "F", "tracMappingNote": "TRAC group F is defined as specialist music and arts institutions.", "liquidityDays": { "lowerQuartile": 39, "mean": 90, "upperQuartile": 155 }, "base": { "income": { "homeUG": 501, "homePGT": 46, "homePGR": 2, "intlUG": 287, "intlPGT": 216, "intlPGR": 5, "educationContracts": 100, "fundingBodyGrants": 128, "researchGrants": 11, "otherIncome": 234, "investmentIncome": 33, "donations": 108 }, "reportedIncome": 1670, "expenditure": { "staff": 798, "restructuring": 9, "otherOperating": 701, "depreciation": 77, "interest": 8 }, "reportedExpenditure": 1593, "reportedSurplus": 77, "netLiquidity": 374.6, "reportedLiquidityDays": 90, "borrowing": 342, "netAssets": 2526, "students": { "homeUG": 54415, "homePGT": 4225, "homePGR": 360, "intlUG": 13270, "intlPGT": 9620, "intlPGR": 265 }, "providerForecast": { "2025-26": { "income": 1751, "surplus": 68 }, "2026-27": { "income": 1822, "surplus": 82 }, "2027-28": { "income": 1921, "surplus": 105 }, "2028-29": { "income": 1886, "surplus": 118 } } }, "trac": { "peerGroup": "F", "researchCostShare": 0.061456, "recovery": { "publiclyFundedTeaching": 0.8000839999999999, "nonPubliclyFundedTeaching": 1.24569, "research": 0.598397, "researchCouncils": 0.704027, "ukCharities": 0.7072029999999999, "total": 0.980046 } }, "distributions": { "providers": 38, "totals": { "incomeM": 1600.9, "adjustedExpenditureM": 1526.8, "netLiquidityM": 398.7, "borrowingM": 264 }, "size": { "logIncomeSd": 1.205 }, "margin": { "quantiles": { "p5": -0.07, "p10": -0.0569, "p25": -0.0286, "p50": 0.0108, "p75": 0.0569, "p90": 0.1728, "p95": 0.24 }, "sd": 0.1033, "deficits": 13, "above10": 6 }, "liquidityDays": { "providers": 38, "quantiles": { "p5": -3.2, "p10": 13.7, "p25": 42, "p50": 83.7, "p75": 155.3, "p90": 300.1, "p95": 349.9 }, "lowLiquidity": 9 }, "international": { "providers": 38, "noneShare": 0.053, "feeShareQuantiles": { "p5": 0.019, "p10": 0.0515, "p25": 0.1651, "p50": 0.3031, "p75": 0.5941, "p90": 0.7542, "p95": 0.808 }, "logRelativeSd": 0.91 }, "correlations": { "sizeMargin": 0.107, "marginLiquidity": 0.21, "sizeLiquidity": 0.016, "sizeIntl": 0.285 }, "capexToDepreciation": 2.2493, "staff": { "providers": 38, "oncostRate": 0.2595, "socialSecurityRate": 0.1049, "pensionRateBySchemeOfSalaries": { "uss": 0.0055, "tps": 0.0732, "lgps": 0.051, "other": 0.025 }, "meanSalaryPerFte": 44584.5683 }, "grants": { "ofsTeachingShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.4728, "researchEnglandShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.1327 }, "research": { "researchCouncilShareOfResearchIncome": 0.6485 } }, "regions": { "North East": 0, "North West": 3, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 5, "East Midlands": 0, "West Midlands": 1, "East of England": 2, "London": 27, "South East": 5, "South West": 2 }, "subjects": { "mix": [ 0, 0, 0.00012, 0, 0.00148, 0.00534, 0, 0.00071, 0.00095, 0.00261, 0, 0, 0.00077, 0, 0.0187, 0.04774, 0.01669, 0, 0.208, 0.00344, 0.00285, 0.00356, 0.03462, 0.6524, 0 ], "largestSubjectShare": 0.904, "largestSubjectCounts": [ 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0, 35, 0 ] } }, { "id": "level45", "label": "Level 4 and 5 provider", "shortLabel": "Level 4-5", "ofsGroup": "Level 4 and 5", "providers": 45, "description": "Providers whose students are mostly on sub-degree courses (HNCs, HNDs, foundation degrees). Mostly independent providers, almost entirely home-funded.", "definition": "More than half of its higher education students are studying at Level 4 or 5, below a bachelor's degree. Level 4 is the standard of a degree's first year (such as a Higher National Certificate, HNC); Level 5 of its second (a Higher National Diploma, HND, or a foundation degree); a bachelor's degree is Level 6. This is tested first, so such a provider is in this group whatever its size or subject.", "typical": "Mostly private providers, most teaching business and management, almost all to UK students. Further education colleges teach most Level 4 and 5 courses, but their finances are overseen by the Department for Education, not the OfS, so they are not in the OfS's figures or in the model.", "tracPeerGroup": "E", "tracMappingNote": "These providers do not return TRAC. Group E, the smallest teaching institutions, is used as the nearest structure.", "liquidityDays": { "lowerQuartile": 37, "mean": 77, "upperQuartile": 210 }, "base": { "income": { "homeUG": 229, "homePGT": 10, "homePGR": 0, "intlUG": 47, "intlPGT": 18, "intlPGR": 0, "educationContracts": 196, "fundingBodyGrants": 26, "researchGrants": 0, "otherIncome": 739, "investmentIncome": 23, "donations": 185 }, "reportedIncome": 1473, "expenditure": { "staff": 555, "restructuring": 1, "otherOperating": 757, "depreciation": 57, "interest": 18 }, "reportedExpenditure": 1388, "reportedSurplus": 86, "netLiquidity": 279.9, "reportedLiquidityDays": 77, "borrowing": 213, "netAssets": 1518, "students": { "homeUG": 26830, "homePGT": 1320, "homePGR": 20, "intlUG": 2520, "intlPGT": 965, "intlPGR": 5 }, "providerForecast": { "2025-26": { "income": 1603, "surplus": 150 }, "2026-27": { "income": 1743, "surplus": 221 }, "2027-28": { "income": 1951, "surplus": 263 }, "2028-29": { "income": 2158, "surplus": 318 } } }, "trac": { "peerGroup": "E", "researchCostShare": 0.085811, "recovery": { "publiclyFundedTeaching": 0.940535, "nonPubliclyFundedTeaching": 1.10771, "research": 0.43837200000000004, "researchCouncils": 0.602337, "ukCharities": 0.528227, "total": 0.9413379999999999 } }, "distributions": { "providers": 26, "totals": { "incomeM": 1086.2, "adjustedExpenditureM": 942.9, "netLiquidityM": 189.1, "borrowingM": 27.3 }, "size": { "logIncomeSd": 1.7 }, "margin": { "quantiles": { "p5": -0.194, "p10": -0.136, "p25": 0.0069, "p50": 0.0717, "p75": 0.2406, "p90": 0.274, "p95": 0.2949 }, "sd": 0.1717, "deficits": 5, "above10": 11 }, "liquidityDays": { "providers": 26, "quantiles": { "p5": 21.5, "p10": 26.2, "p25": 75.3, "p50": 128.9, "p75": 202.7, "p90": 302.5, "p95": 768.8 }, "lowLiquidity": 4 }, "international": { "providers": 25, "noneShare": 0.6, "feeShareQuantiles": { "p5": 0, "p10": 0, "p25": 0, "p50": 0, "p75": 0.3081, "p90": 0.6263, "p95": 0.8059 }, "logRelativeSd": 1.12 }, "correlations": { "sizeMargin": 0.103, "marginLiquidity": 0.277, "sizeLiquidity": -0.205, "sizeIntl": 0.036 }, "capexToDepreciation": 1.3737, "staff": { "providers": 26, "oncostRate": 0.1333, "socialSecurityRate": 0.1061, "pensionRateBySchemeOfSalaries": { "uss": 0, "tps": 0.0017, "lgps": 0.0003, "other": 0.0253 }, "meanSalaryPerFte": 38707.4386 }, "grants": { "ofsTeachingShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0.741, "researchEnglandShareOfFundingBodyGrants": 0 }, "research": { "researchCouncilShareOfResearchIncome": 0 } }, "regions": { "North East": 0, "North West": 0, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 0, "East Midlands": 0, "West Midlands": 2, "East of England": 2, "London": 40, "South East": 1, "South West": 0 }, "subjects": { "mix": [ 0, 0, 0.00263, 0, 0.00364, 0.00182, 0, 0.08411, 0.00222, 0.00121, 0, 0.01436, 0.00101, 0, 0.02264, 0.05782, 0.01051, 0.00283, 0.72119, 0.00121, 0.01334, 0, 0.03013, 0.02932, 0 ], "largestSubjectShare": 1, "largestSubjectCounts": [ 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 14, 0, 2, 0, 1, 6, 0 ] } } ], "archetypeProvenance": { "baseYear": 2024, "baseYearLabel": "2024-25", "rawFiles": { "accounts": "raw/ofs-2026-annex-e-provider-groups.csv", "trac": "raw/trac-2024-25-peer-groups.csv" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026, Annex E: Sector financial data", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/xnajt3ar/ofs-2026_21-annex-e-updated-15-6-26.xlsx", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Every 2024-25 income, expenditure, balance-sheet and student-number figure for each provider group, reproduced verbatim in raw/ofs-2026-annex-e-provider-groups.csv from the sheet 'All_data_output_peer_group'. Provider counts per group from the 'Notes' sheet." }, { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026 (updated 15 June 2026)", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/p0dd3sdq/ofs-2026_21-updated-15-6-26.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Net liquidity days by provider group, 2024-25 (Table 17): lower quartile, mean and upper quartile." }, { "title": "Annual TRAC 2024-25, Annex C: analysis by TRAC peer group", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/mdnlhmtp/annex_c_trac_2024-25_data.xlsx", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Activity cost shares and full economic cost recovery by TRAC peer group (Tables 1-3), reproduced in raw/trac-2024-25-peer-groups.csv." }, { "title": "TRAC peer groups for 2024-25 (Annex 4.1b of the TRAC guidance)", "publisher": "TRAC Development Group", "url": "https://www.trac.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Annex-4.1b-TRAC-peer-groups-for-2024-25.xlsx", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Peer group definitions: A medical school and research ≥20% of income; B other research ≥15%; C research 5-15%; D research <5% and income >£150m; E research <5% and income ≤£150m; F specialist music/arts." }, { "title": "Provider typologies 2022 (December 2022 update)", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/7801/provider-typologies-2022_dec2022-update.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-05", "supports": "How providers are sorted into the seven finance-typology groups, in order: more than half of higher education students at Level 4 or 5; specialist (at least 75% of students in one broad subject area or 90% in two, creative if one is creative arts and design); then qualifying income (OfS grants and tuition fees) over £200m, £100m-£200m or under £100m, with the largest split at 70% of total income. The typical sizes and kinds of provider in each group's 'typical' text are from the accompanying provider data (2020-21 student numbers)." }, { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026 (updated 15 June 2026): introduction", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/p0dd3sdq/ofs-2026_21-updated-15-6-26.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-05", "supports": "The OfS financial data covers higher education providers in England excluding further education colleges." } ], "transformations": "Base-year accounts are the OfS 2024-25 figures for each finance-typology group, read from the raw CSV by scripts/build-simulator-data.mjs. 'Education contracts and other course fees' is course fees and education contracts less the six tuition-fee lines. Each group is matched to the TRAC peer group with the closest research share and size to borrow its activity cost structure; Level 4 and 5 providers are outside TRAC and borrow group E.", "caveats": [ "The groups are the OfS's, not the six types in the design brief. The brief's split between global and civic research universities is represented by variation between synthetic providers within the large research-intensive group, not by a separate type.", "2024-25 is audited for 247 providers; for 32 providers that had not yet submitted their 2025 return, the OfS used 2024-25 forecasts.", "OfS groups and TRAC peer groups are drawn on different criteria, and TRAC covers UK higher education institutions only. The TRAC figures attached to each group are borrowed, not measured for that group.", "Student numbers are full-time equivalents. The international student levy is charged per head, so the model converts with an assumed headcount-to-FTE ratio." ] }, "distributionProvenance": { "note": "Group-level statistics derived from HESA provider-level finance data by scripts/import-hesa-distributions.mjs. Only aggregates are recorded; the provider-level files are not committed. Margins are surplus before other gains, excluding pension provision adjustments, as a share of income (the OfS \"adjusted surplus\"); net liquidity is cash plus current asset investments less overdrafts; liquidity days divide it by expenditure excluding depreciation and pension adjustments.", "year": "2024/25", "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7C and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25)", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Provider-level income, expenditure, balance sheet, cash flow, tuition fees by domicile, research income by sponsor, funding body grants and staff costs by pension scheme. Last updated May 2026. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0." }, { "title": "Provider typologies 2022: provider data", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/provider-typologies-2022/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The finance typology group of each provider, by UKPRN." } ], "coverage": { "englishProvidersInHesa": 269, "matchedToTypology": 233, "unmatched": 35, "unmatchedIncomeM": 370 }, "sector": { "providers": 233, "deficits": 89, "above10": 35, "lowLiquidity": 29, "incomeM": 45729.7 } }, "exogenous": { "cpi": { "id": "cpi", "label": "CPI inflation", "unit": "annual rate", "byYear": { "2024": 0.024, "2025": 0.034, "2026": 0.02, "2027": 0.019, "2028": 0.02, "2029": 0.02, "2030": 0.02 }, "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2026, Table A.3: Determinants of the fiscal forecast", "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69a6d7b62e1f4fbda4252208/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026-web-accessible.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "CPI by fiscal year 2024-25 (outturn) to 2030-31: 2.4, 3.4, 2.0, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0 per cent." } ], "note": "Fiscal years (April-March) are used for the academic years they mostly overlap (August-July). The 2.0 per cent target rate is held after 2030-31." }, "rpi": { "id": "rpi", "label": "RPI inflation", "unit": "annual rate", "byYear": { "2024": 0.033, "2025": 0.042, "2026": 0.029, "2027": 0.029, "2028": 0.028, "2029": 0.029, "2030": 0.021 }, "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2026, Table A.3: Determinants of the fiscal forecast", "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69a6d7b62e1f4fbda4252208/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026-web-accessible.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "RPI by fiscal year 2024-25 to 2030-31: 3.3, 4.2, 2.9, 2.9, 2.8, 2.9, 2.1 per cent. The drop in 2030 reflects the ONS aligning RPI with CPIH." } ], "note": "The fee cap is uprated by forecast RPIX (RPI excluding mortgage interest), which the OBR does not publish in its summary tables. RPI is used as the nearest published proxy; the DfE's own RPIX uplifts (2.71% and 2.68%) were slightly lower than RPI for those years." }, "averageEarnings": { "id": "averageEarnings", "label": "Average weekly earnings growth", "unit": "annual rate", "byYear": { "2024": 0.056, "2025": 0.046, "2026": 0.032, "2027": 0.022, "2028": 0.021, "2029": 0.023, "2030": 0.024 }, "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2026, Table A.3: Determinants of the fiscal forecast", "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69a6d7b62e1f4fbda4252208/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026-web-accessible.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Average weekly earnings growth by fiscal year 2024-25 to 2030-31: 5.6, 4.6, 3.2, 2.2, 2.1, 2.3, 2.4 per cent." } ], "note": "Context and the upper bound for future pay awards; university pay awards have run below whole-economy earnings growth." }, "bankRate": { "id": "bankRate", "label": "Bank Rate", "unit": "rate", "byYear": { "2024": 0.049, "2025": 0.04, "2026": 0.034, "2027": 0.036, "2028": 0.037, "2029": 0.039, "2030": 0.04 }, "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2026, Table A.3: Determinants of the fiscal forecast", "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69a6d7b62e1f4fbda4252208/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026-web-accessible.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Bank Rate by fiscal year 2024-25 to 2030-31: 4.9, 4.0, 3.4, 3.6, 3.7, 3.9, 4.0 per cent." } ], "note": "Not used by the Phase 2 accounting model (existing debt is treated as fixed-rate); kept for the borrowing and interest-rate shocks in later phases." }, "payAward": { "id": "payAward", "label": "National pay award (New JNCHES)", "unit": "annual rate", "byYear": { "2025": 0.014, "2026": 0.02 }, "thereafter": "model", "sources": [ { "title": "UK universities offer 1.4 per cent pay rise for most staff", "publisher": "Times Higher Education", "url": "https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/uk-universities-offer-14-cent-pay-rise-most-staff", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The 2025-26 final offer: 1.4 per cent on all spine points from 1 August 2025, which UCEA advised employers to implement." }, { "title": "2026-27 New JNCHES pay round", "publisher": "UCEA", "url": "https://www.ucea.ac.uk/our-work/collective-pay-negotiations-landing/2026-27-nj-pay-round/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The 2026-27 round concluded with UCEA advising employers to implement a 2 per cent uplift to all employees." } ], "note": "Known awards only. Later years are set by the model as CPI plus the parameter costs.payAwardMinusCpi. Some institutions pay outside the national framework." }, "demography18": { "id": "demography18", "label": "18-year-old population, England", "unit": "index, 2026 = 100", "byYear": { "2022": 94, "2023": 95.5, "2024": 97, "2025": 98.5, "2026": 100, "2027": 101.5, "2028": 103, "2029": 104.2, "2030": 105, "2031": 104, "2032": 102.5, "2033": 100.5, "2034": 98.5, "2035": 97, "2036": 94.6 }, "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Student Demand to 2035 (HEPI Report 179)", "publisher": "Higher Education Policy Institute", "url": "https://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Student-Demand-to-2035.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-08-14", "supports": "The peak in 2030, the 7 per cent fall to 2035 and a further 12 per cent fall between 2035 and 2040." } ], "note": "2026-2035 is the site's verified demographics dataset (data/charts/demographics.json), whose anchor points are sourced and whose intermediate years are smoothed. 2022-2025 extend the rise backwards at 1.5 points a year and 2036 extends the HEPI 2035-40 fall (about 2.5 per cent a year); both extensions are assumptions, to be replaced with ONS single-year counts." } }, "policy": { "homeFeeCap": { "id": "homeFeeCap", "label": "Undergraduate tuition fee cap (approved fee providers)", "unit": "£ per student per year", "schedule": [ { "from": "2017-08-01", "value": 9250 }, { "from": "2025-08-01", "value": 9535 }, { "from": "2026-08-01", "value": 9790 }, { "from": "2027-08-01", "value": 10050 } ], "thereafter": "rpi", "sources": [ { "title": "Higher education: tuition fee limits and fee loans for academic years 2026 to 2027 and 2027 to 2028 – final stage impact assessment", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukia/2026/9/pdfs/ukia_20260009_en.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The higher fee cap rises from £9,535 by forecast RPIX of 2.71% to £9,790 in 2026/27 and by 2.68% to £10,050 in 2027/28, for current and new students." }, { "title": "International Student Levy: government technical consultation response", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a50c1d22467584757371cea/ISL_Consultation_Response.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The government is 'committed to legislating when parliamentary time allows to increase tuition fee caps automatically for future academic years, for high-quality higher education providers.'" } ], "note": "Indexation after 2027-28 is stated government intention, not yet law, and is promised only to 'high-quality' providers. The baseline assumes it happens for everyone; 'fees frozen from 2028' is one of the counterfactual presets. The fee cap applies to full-time undergraduates; foundation-year and part-time fees differ, so fee income per FTE is scaled by the cap rather than set equal to it." }, "intlLevyPerStudent": { "id": "intlLevyPerStudent", "label": "International student levy", "unit": "£ per international student (headcount) per year", "schedule": [ { "from": "2017-08-01", "value": 0 }, { "from": "2028-08-01", "value": 925 } ], "thereafter": "rpi", "sources": [ { "title": "International student levy: draft finance bill", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introducing-an-international-student-levy-on-higher-education-providers/international-student-levy-draft-finance-bill", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "'The amount charged is £925 for each of those international students', charged per academic year on registered providers in England; the Secretary of State may uprate it for inflation, set an allowance and specify exemptions by regulations." }, { "title": "International Student Levy: government technical consultation response", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a50c1d22467584757371cea/ISL_Consultation_Response.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Charged from 1 August 2028; 'secondary legislation will set out that the levy amount will increase in line with inflation, according to the inflation index that is also used for tuition fee limit uplifts.'" } ], "note": "Uprating is assumed to start in 2029-30, the year after introduction." }, "intlLevyAllowance": { "id": "intlLevyAllowance", "label": "International students per provider exempt from the levy", "unit": "students (headcount)", "schedule": [ { "from": "2028-08-01", "value": 220 } ], "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "International Student Levy: government technical consultation response", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a50c1d22467584757371cea/ISL_Consultation_Response.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The allowance 'will be set in secondary legislation and we still intend it to be 220 international students for each provider … this exempts providers from up to £203,500 per year.'" } ], "note": "Stated intention; the figure will be fixed in secondary legislation." }, "teachingGrantIndex": { "id": "teachingGrantIndex", "label": "OfS recurrent teaching grant (Strategic Priorities Grant), relative to 2024-25", "unit": "index, 2024-25 = 1", "schedule": [ { "from": "2017-08-01", "value": 1 }, { "from": "2026-08-01", "value": 0.955 } ], "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Funding for 2026-27: decisions and allocations (OfS 2026.36)", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/4srekubm/funding-for-2026-27-decisions-allocations.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Recurrent grants for academic year 2026-27 total £1,252 million, 'a decrease of £58.9 million (-4.5 per cent) compared with the equivalent budget for the previous year.'" } ], "note": "2024-25 to 2025-26 is assumed flat. No settlement exists beyond 2026-27; the baseline holds it in cash terms, so it falls in real terms. Applied to the part of each group's funding body grants that is not QR research funding." }, "qrIndex": { "id": "qrIndex", "label": "Research England quality-related (QR) research funding, relative to 2024-25", "unit": "index, 2024-25 = 1", "schedule": [ { "from": "2017-08-01", "value": 1 }, { "from": "2026-08-01", "value": 1.0188 } ], "thereafter": "cpi", "sources": [ { "title": "Research England grant allocations basis 2024 to 2025 and 2025 to 2026", "publisher": "UK Research and Innovation", "url": "https://www.ukri.org/publications/research-england-grant-allocations-to-heps-2025-to-2026/research-england-grant-allocations-basis-2025-to-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Total QR funding of £1,987 million in both 2024-25 and 2025-26." }, { "title": "Research England funding budgets 2026 to 2027", "publisher": "UK Research and Innovation", "url": "https://www.ukri.org/publications/research-england-funding-budgets-for-2026-to-2027/research-england-funding-budgets-2026-to-2027/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Total QR funding of £2,024 million in 2026-27; each element increased by 1.88 per cent." } ], "note": "After 2026-27 QR is assumed to grow with CPI, following the spending review statement that core QR grows 'in line with expected inflation'. Each group's QR is its share of £1,987m in proportion to its research grant income." }, "ukriFecRate": { "id": "ukriFecRate", "label": "UKRI grants: share of full economic cost paid", "unit": "fraction", "schedule": [ { "from": "2006-01-01", "value": 0.8 } ], "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Find out what costs are eligible for UKRI funding", "publisher": "UK Research and Innovation", "url": "https://www.ukri.org/apply-for-funding/develop-your-application/what-costs-are-eligible-for-ukri-funding/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "UKRI 'usually fund 80% of the full economic cost of your project.'" } ], "note": "The nominal rate. TRAC shows institutions actually recovered 70.1 per cent of full economic cost on research council work in 2024-25. Used from Phase 3." }, "employerNiRate": { "id": "employerNiRate", "label": "Employer National Insurance rate (Class 1 secondary)", "unit": "fraction of earnings above the threshold", "schedule": [ { "from": "2023-04-06", "value": 0.138 }, { "from": "2025-04-06", "value": 0.15 } ], "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Rates and thresholds for employers 2026 to 2027", "publisher": "HM Revenue & Customs", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rates-and-thresholds-for-employers-2026-to-2027", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Employer secondary Class 1 rate of 15 per cent above a secondary threshold of £5,000 a year." } ], "note": "The 13.8 per cent rate before April 2025 is the long-standing previous rate." }, "employerNiThreshold": { "id": "employerNiThreshold", "label": "Employer National Insurance secondary threshold", "unit": "£ per year", "schedule": [ { "from": "2023-04-06", "value": 9100 }, { "from": "2025-04-06", "value": 5000 } ], "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Rates and thresholds for employers 2026 to 2027", "publisher": "HM Revenue & Customs", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rates-and-thresholds-for-employers-2026-to-2027", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Secondary threshold of £5,000 a year in 2026-27." } ], "note": "The £9,100 threshold before April 2025 is the long-standing previous value. The employment allowance (£10,500) is ignored as immaterial for providers of this size." }, "tpsEmployerRate": { "id": "tpsEmployerRate", "label": "Teachers' Pension Scheme employer contribution rate", "unit": "fraction of pensionable pay", "schedule": [ { "from": "2019-09-01", "value": 0.2368 }, { "from": "2024-04-01", "value": 0.2868 }, { "from": "2027-04-01", "value": 0.1768 } ], "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Changes to employer contributions from 1 April 2027", "publisher": "Teachers' Pensions", "url": "https://www.teacherspensions.co.uk/news/employers/2026/06/valuation.aspx", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The 2024 valuation reduces the employer rate from 28.68 per cent to 17.68 per cent of pensionable pay (including the administration levy) from 1 April 2027." } ], "note": "Mostly affects post-1992 universities, whose academic staff are in the TPS. Unlike schools and colleges, universities received no government funding for the 2024 increase, and so keep the whole of the 2027 reduction." }, "ussEmployerRate": { "id": "ussEmployerRate", "label": "Universities Superannuation Scheme employer contribution rate", "unit": "fraction of salary", "schedule": [ { "from": "2024-01-01", "value": 0.145 } ], "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "What you pay and what you'll get", "publisher": "Universities Superannuation Scheme", "url": "https://www.uss.co.uk/for-members/your-pension-explained/what-you-pay-and-what-youll-get", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Employers pay 14.5 per cent following the 2023 valuation; the 2026 valuation is under way." } ], "note": "Held at 14.5 per cent in the baseline. The outcome of the 2026 valuation is a candidate shock." }, "graduateRouteMonths": { "id": "graduateRouteMonths", "label": "Graduate Route length (non-doctoral)", "unit": "months", "schedule": [ { "from": "2021-07-01", "value": 24 }, { "from": "2027-01-01", "value": 18 } ], "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Graduate visa", "publisher": "Home Office (GOV.UK)", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/graduate-visa", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "A Graduate visa lasts '2 years if you apply on or before 31 December 2026' and '18 months if you apply on or after 1 January 2027'; 3 years for a PhD." } ], "note": "Used from Phase 3, when international demand responds to policy." }, "dependantsAllowed": { "id": "dependantsAllowed", "label": "Taught postgraduates may bring dependants", "unit": "1 = yes, 0 = research degrees only", "schedule": [ { "from": "2010-01-01", "value": 1 }, { "from": "2024-01-01", "value": 0 } ], "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Student visa: your partner and children", "publisher": "Home Office (GOV.UK)", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/student-visa/family-members", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "For postgraduate courses starting on or after 1 January 2024, only a PhD or other doctorate or a research-based higher degree qualifies a student to bring dependants." } ], "note": "Used from Phase 3." }, "intlEntrantCapShare": { "id": "intlEntrantCapShare", "label": "Cap on international entrants, as a share of 2024-25 entrants", "unit": "fraction (0 = no cap)", "schedule": [ { "from": "2017-08-01", "value": 0 } ], "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "International Student Levy: government technical consultation response", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a50c1d22467584757371cea/ISL_Consultation_Response.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The government's chosen instruments for international recruitment are the levy and visa rules; no numerical cap on international students is proposed." } ], "note": "No cap exists. The setting exists so that the cap lever has a baseline to change." }, "regulatoryBurdenIndex": { "id": "regulatoryBurdenIndex", "label": "Regulatory compliance burden, relative to 2024-25", "unit": "index, 2024-25 = 1", "schedule": [ { "from": "2017-08-01", "value": 1 } ], "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Understanding the burden of regulation", "publisher": "Moorhouse Consulting for Universities UK", "url": "https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/sites/default/files/uploads/Reports/Moorhouse-regulatory-burden-report.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "An average of 17.6 FTE per university dedicated to regulatory compliance, costing the English sector of the order of £150-200m a year." } ], "note": "The 2024-25 burden is already inside every provider's costs; the lever changes it from 2027-28. Its cost per provider is set by the regulation.* parameters." }, "sharedServicesLevel": { "id": "sharedServicesLevel", "label": "Policy on shared services and collaboration", "unit": "0 = as now, 1 = facilitated, 2 = facilitated with VAT neutralised", "schedule": [ { "from": "2017-08-01", "value": 0 } ], "thereafter": "hold", "sources": [ { "title": "Universities would share 'almost all' services to help finances (on the UUK/Jisc shared services report)", "publisher": "Times Higher Education", "url": "https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/universities-would-share-almost-all-services-help-finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Shared services can trim costs by 6-10 per cent (EY estimates); existing shared services serve only a subset of universities; the report urges VAT reform because cost-sharing groups find the current rules 'unworkable'." } ], "note": "Shared services exist today on a small scale; their savings are already in the 2024-25 accounts. The lever adds wider adoption from 2027-28." } }, "calibrationTargets": [ { "id": "base.sectorIncome", "label": "Sector income, 2024-25", "type": "identity", "year": 2024, "metric": "sector.income", "value": 48140, "unit": "£m", "tolerance": { "absolute": 3 }, "source": { "title": "OfS 2026 Annex E", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/xnajt3ar/ofs-2026_21-annex-e-updated-15-6-26.xlsx", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Sector total income £48,140m." }, "note": "The model builds income from the OfS's published income lines, which sum to £48,141m against the reported total of £48,140m; the difference is rounding in the source table." }, { "id": "base.sectorSurplus", "label": "Sector surplus, 2024-25", "type": "identity", "year": 2024, "metric": "sector.surplus", "value": 890, "unit": "£m", "tolerance": { "absolute": 5 }, "source": { "title": "OfS 2026 Annex E", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/xnajt3ar/ofs-2026_21-annex-e-updated-15-6-26.xlsx", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Total income £48,140m less total expenditure excluding pension adjustments £47,250m. The OfS reports £891m; the £1m difference is rounding." } }, { "id": "base.providersInDeficit", "label": "Providers in deficit, 2024-25", "type": "plausibility", "year": 2024, "metric": "count.deficit", "value": 100, "unit": "providers", "tolerance": { "absolute": 8 }, "source": { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026, paragraph 138", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/p0dd3sdq/ofs-2026_21-updated-15-6-26.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "100 providers (35.8 per cent of the sector) reported deficits in 2024-25." }, "note": "Reported, not enforced. The synthetic population takes its margin distributions from HESA and is shifted so each group's total surplus matches the OfS; over 500 seeds it averages about 117 providers in deficit. Two measured reasons: HESA's own deficit rate (89 of 233, 38 per cent) is above the OfS's (36 per cent), so applying it to all 279 providers gives about 107; and in the Level 4-5 group the OfS total margin is far below the HESA providers' (5.8 against 13.2 per cent), which adds about 10 more there. HESA's groups come from the OfS's 2022 typology and the OfS totals from 2026 membership, so that gap partly reflects changed membership. The enforced check is base.groupDeficitShareVsHesa." }, { "id": "base.groupDeficitShareVsHesa", "label": "Providers in deficit in each well-covered group, 2024-25, against HESA's share", "type": "distribution", "year": 2024, "metric": "archetype.deficitShareVsHesa", "value": 0, "unit": "providers (worst group)", "tolerance": { "absolute": 3 }, "source": { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance 2024/25 (tables 1 and 12)", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Providers in deficit by OfS group among the English providers HESA covers (data/simulator/hesa-distributions.json)." }, "note": "Checked for the groups where HESA covers at least 90 per cent of the OfS's providers (large research-intensive, large teaching-intensive, medium, smaller): the model's mean count in deficit against HESA's share of providers in deficit applied to the group's OfS count. 'value' is unused; the check is the largest gap in providers. Measured in providers because one provider is up to 7 percentage points of a 14-provider group. Over 50 seeds the worst gap is about 2.3 providers (the medium group), from the shift that matches the group's surplus to the OfS total (0.4 per cent margin against HESA's 0.9)." }, { "id": "base.providersHighSurplus", "label": "Providers with a surplus above 10 per cent of income, 2024-25", "type": "distribution", "year": 2024, "metric": "count.surplusAbove10", "value": 52, "unit": "providers", "tolerance": { "absolute": 8 }, "source": { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026, paragraph 138", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/p0dd3sdq/ofs-2026_21-updated-15-6-26.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "52 providers (18.6 per cent) reported surpluses exceeding 10 per cent of total income." } }, { "id": "base.sectorLiquidityDays", "label": "Sector net liquidity days, 2024-25", "type": "distribution", "year": 2024, "metric": "sector.liquidityDays", "value": 124, "unit": "days", "tolerance": { "relative": 0.12 }, "source": { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026, Table 17", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/p0dd3sdq/ofs-2026_21-updated-15-6-26.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Sector net liquidity £14,988m, 124 days." } }, { "id": "base.lowLiquidity", "label": "Providers with low liquidity (below 10 per cent of expenditure), 2024-25", "type": "distribution", "year": 2024, "metric": "count.lowLiquidity", "value": 35, "unit": "providers", "tolerance": { "absolute": 8 }, "source": { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance 2024/25 (tables 1, 3, 12)", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "29 of the 233 English providers matched to an OfS group had net liquidity below 10 per cent of expenditure in 2024-25 (data/simulator/hesa-distributions.json); 12.4 per cent of 279 is 35." }, "note": "HESA's measured share (12.4 per cent) applied to all 279 providers. It resolves the tension recorded before the HESA data arrived, when quartile-based cash put about 47 providers below the threshold." }, { "id": "base.lowLiquidityOfs", "label": "Providers with low liquidity (below 10 per cent of expenditure), 2024-25, on the OfS's whole-sector count", "type": "plausibility", "year": 2024, "metric": "count.lowLiquidity", "value": 51, "unit": "providers", "tolerance": { "absolute": 8 }, "source": { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026 (OfS 2026.21, updated 15 June 2026)", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/p0dd3sdq/ofs-2026_21-updated-15-6-26.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-06", "supports": "Paragraph 151: 'In 2024-25, 51 providers reported net liquidity levels less than 10 per cent of total expenditure' (adjusted for pension provision movements)." }, "note": "Reported, not enforced. The model reproduces HESA's share (base.lowLiquidity: 35) but not the OfS's 51. The two differ in coverage (HESA matches 233 of the 279 providers; the 46 others, mostly small and Level 4-5 providers, are given their group's HESA distribution, which may understate their weakest tail) and in definition (the OfS adjusts expenditure for pension provision movements). Until they are reconciled, the model probably understates how many providers have little cash, and so how soon some reach distress." }, { "id": "base.groupLowerQuartileDays", "label": "Liquidity-day lower quartile of each group, 2024-25 (mean over seeds)", "type": "plausibility", "year": 2024, "metric": "archetype.liquidityLowerQuartile", "value": 0, "unit": "days, relative to Table 17", "tolerance": { "relative": 0.2 }, "source": { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026, Table 17", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/p0dd3sdq/ofs-2026_21-updated-15-6-26.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Lower-quartile net liquidity days by provider group, 2024-25." }, "note": "Reported, not enforced. The population's cash distribution now comes from HESA, whose lower quartiles differ from the OfS's Table 17 even where HESA covers almost every provider (medium: 70 days against 54, with group cash totals within 4 per cent) — a difference in how the two datasets measure liquidity rather than in the providers. Where coverage is lower (specialist, Level 4-5), the OfS figure also includes cash-poor providers HESA does not see. 'value' is unused; the comparison is the largest relative gap across groups." }, { "id": "plausibility.deficits2025", "label": "Providers in deficit, 2025-26", "type": "plausibility", "year": 2025, "metric": "count.deficit", "value": 119, "unit": "providers", "tolerance": { "absolute": 15 }, "source": { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026 (OfS 2026.21, updated 15 June 2026)", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/p0dd3sdq/ofs-2026_21-updated-15-6-26.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-06", "supports": "Paragraph 138: 'Providers' forecasts show that the number reporting deficits is expected to rise to 119 (42.7 per cent of the sector) in 2025-26.' The 102 in paragraph 88 compares only providers that submitted both forecasts (like for like), not the whole sector." }, "note": "Reported, not enforced: the OfS figure is providers' own forecasts, not an outturn. Compared with the whole-sector figure, because the model represents all 279 providers. (Before model 0.4.0 this target used paragraph 88's 102, which covers only providers with forecasts in both years.)" }, { "id": "plausibility.lowLiquidity2025", "label": "Providers with low liquidity (below 10 per cent of expenditure), 2025-26", "type": "plausibility", "year": 2025, "metric": "count.lowLiquidity", "value": 52, "unit": "providers", "tolerance": { "absolute": 15 }, "source": { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026 (OfS 2026.21, updated 15 June 2026)", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/p0dd3sdq/ofs-2026_21-updated-15-6-26.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-06", "supports": "Paragraph 151: 'In 2024-25, 51 providers reported net liquidity levels less than 10 per cent of total expenditure; this is forecast to increase to 52 providers in 2025-26.' The 27 in paragraph 88 compares only providers that submitted both forecasts." }, "note": "Reported, not enforced. The whole-sector figure on the model's own definition (net liquidity below 10 per cent of expenditure). The model has fewer providers with low liquidity than the OfS reports, because its cash distribution comes from HESA, which covers 233 of the 279 providers and measures liquidity before the OfS's pension adjustment (see base.lowLiquidityOfs). (Before model 0.4.0 this target used paragraph 88's 27, which covers only providers with forecasts in both years.)" }, { "id": "levy.grossRevenue2028", "label": "Levy receipts in its first year, before behavioural effects", "type": "plausibility", "year": 2028, "metric": "sector.levy", "value": 445, "unit": "£m", "tolerance": { "relative": 0.3 }, "source": { "title": "International Student Levy – impact analysis (November 2025)", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://consult.education.gov.uk/international-student-levy-unit/international-student-levy/supporting_documents/international-student-levy-impact-analysispdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "OBR-scored levy revenue of £445m in 2028-29, before the allowance ('the fiscal impact of the allowance … will be accounted for in the next forecast') and after the DfE's assumed fall in international numbers." }, "note": "Not like-for-like: the DfE figure is before the 220-student allowance but after its assumed fall in international numbers; the baseline is after the allowance with numbers unchanged. The two effects roughly offset." }, { "id": "plausibility.noGrowthDeficits2028", "label": "Providers in deficit in 2028-29 if student numbers do not grow", "type": "plausibility", "year": 2028, "metric": "count.deficit", "value": 163, "unit": "providers", "tolerance": { "absolute": 50 }, "source": { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026, Table 22", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/p0dd3sdq/ofs-2026_21-updated-15-6-26.pdf", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "With entrants held at 2025 levels and no mitigating action, 163 providers (58 per cent) would be in deficit in 2028-29." }, "note": "Not like-for-like. The OfS scenario starts from providers' own 2028-29 forecasts — costs planned on the assumption of growth — removes the fee income from the missing students and assumes only 20 per cent of that loss is saved in costs, with no further mitigation. The model's providers instead start from a cost base that grows only with pay and prices, and cut it when they fall into deficit. The two bracket the outcome: costs that keep growing as planned (OfS) versus costs that respond (model)." }, { "id": "behaviour.deficitPersistence", "label": "Providers in deficit one year that are in deficit the next, 2025-26 to 2031-32", "type": "distribution", "year": 2025, "metric": "behaviour.deficitPersistence", "value": 0.64, "unit": "share", "tolerance": { "absolute": 0.08 }, "source": { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Of 530 provider-years in deficit (2018/19-2024/25), 64 per cent were followed by another deficit: 74 per cent after a deficit over 5 per cent, 52 per cent after a smaller one." }, "note": "An emergent property: the decision ladder's parameters were set from HESA's measured responses (staff growth, restructuring rates, capital spending), not fitted to this figure. Pooled over six years of transitions and judged on ten seeds." }, { "id": "behaviour.marginPersistence", "label": "Persistence of providers' margin gaps from their group, 2025-26 to 2031-32", "type": "plausibility", "year": 2025, "metric": "behaviour.marginPersistence", "value": 0.686, "unit": "slope", "tolerance": { "absolute": 0.1 }, "source": { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25), analysed in data/simulator/hesa-behaviour.json", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Slope of next year's margin gap on this year's: 0.686 (0.548 over two years, 0.466 over three; 1,870 pairs)." }, "note": "Reported, not enforced. The model's margins revert more slowly than HESA's (about 0.83). In 2016-2025 many deficits belonged to expanding providers whose costs ran ahead of income and were closed by growth: providers with deficits over 5 per cent grew income by a median 8.6 per cent the next year, against 5.0 per cent for all. With demand flat or falling to 2035, the model gives providers no such escape and does not fit its cost-cutting to the faster historical recovery. Deficits are therefore stickier in the model than in the recent past; this is a finding to test, not an assumption to hide." }, { "id": "behaviour.restructuringProviders2025", "label": "Providers paying restructuring costs, 2025-26", "type": "plausibility", "year": 2025, "metric": "count.restructuring", "value": 65, "unit": "providers", "tolerance": { "absolute": 25 }, "source": { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Paragraph 78: 65 providers reported restructuring costs in 2024-25 (HESA: 59), and providers forecast restructuring costs to fall from 2025-26." }, "note": "Reported, not enforced: a different year. The model's providers start restructuring at the end of 2024-25, after a second deficit or in deficit with low cash." }, { "id": "behaviour.restructuringCost2025", "label": "Restructuring costs, 2025-26", "type": "plausibility", "year": 2025, "metric": "sector.restructuring", "value": 218, "unit": "£m", "tolerance": { "absolute": 100 }, "source": { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Paragraph 78: restructuring costs of £218.2m in 2024-25, about 0.5 per cent of sector expenditure." }, "note": "Reported, not enforced: a different year, and providers forecast lower costs in 2025-26." }, { "id": "behaviour.ssr2026", "label": "Students per member of staff, 2026-27, relative to 2024-25", "type": "plausibility", "year": 2026, "metric": "sector.ssrIndex", "value": 1.06, "unit": "index", "tolerance": { "absolute": 0.03 }, "source": { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Paragraph 81: providers' forecasts show the student to academic staff ratio rising by around 3 per cent in each of 2025-26 and 2026-27." }, "note": "Reported, not enforced. Providers' forecasts assume student growth that has not materialised; the model's index divides its own students by teaching and professional staff." }, { "id": "plausibility.netLiquidity2028", "label": "Sector net liquidity, 2028-29", "type": "plausibility", "year": 2028, "metric": "sector.netLiquidity", "value": 14700, "unit": "£m", "tolerance": { "absolute": 3000 }, "source": { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Table 5: providers forecast net liquidity of £13.2bn in 2025-26 rising to £14.7bn in 2028-29, with capital spending of £5.1bn in 2025-26." }, "note": "Reported, not enforced. The model's cash grows faster than providers forecast. Providers plan larger capital programmes than they usually deliver (the OfS notes forecast capital spending is often not achieved) and move cash into long-term investments, which net liquidity excludes; the model does neither, and holds borrowing constant." } ], "regions": [ "North East", "North West", "Yorkshire and The Humber", "East Midlands", "West Midlands", "East of England", "London", "South East", "South West" ], "subjects": { "note": "The subjects the model tracks, built from HESA's Common Aggregation Hierarchy (CAH) level 3 codes. Most are CAH level 1 subjects; the subjects that train the public-service workforce are separated out so that losing them is visible. A CAH3 code belongs to the first subject whose prefixes match it, in file order. 'priceGroup' approximates the OfS funding price groups: A (clinical medicine, dentistry, veterinary science), B (laboratory science, engineering, technology, and pre-registration health courses), and everything else (C and D). The mapping is at subject level, so it is approximate: in medicine only the clinical years are group A, and some subjects allied to medicine are not group B. Earnings and employment: median earnings and the share in sustained employment or further study five years after graduation, for UK-domiciled first-degree graduates of English providers (LEO, 2023-24 tax year), averaged across each subject's CAH3 subjects weighted by graduates. Students by subject at English providers matched to an OfS finance group, from HESA Table 49 (all levels and modes, CAH3 subjects summed to the model's subjects in subjects.json). Withdrawal: of provider-subject pairs (CAH3) with at least 20 students in 2019/20, at providers still reporting students in 2024/25, the share with fewer than 5 in 2024/25; recoding between CAH3 subjects counts as withdrawal, so rates are upper bounds. Group-level statistics only.", "sources": [ { "title": "Table 49 - HE student enrolments by HE provider and subject of study 2014/15 to 2024/25", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/students/table-49", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Enrolments by provider, CAH level 3 subject, level and mode of study. Last updated January 2026. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0." }, { "title": "Provider typologies 2022: provider data", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/provider-typologies-2022/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The finance typology group of each provider, by UKPRN." }, { "title": "Graduate labour market outcomes (LEO), tax year 2023-24: CAH level 3 subject data", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-catalogue/data-set/d8bc2906-419e-40ef-ad8e-9b2ccd3997dc", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Median earnings and sustained employment or further study, five years after graduation, by CAH3 subject (first degree, all graduates). Rows used are kept verbatim in data/simulator/raw/leo-2023-24-cah3-first-degree-5yag.csv." } ], "list": [ { "id": "medicine", "label": "Medicine and dentistry", "cah": [ "01" ], "publicService": true, "priceGroup": "A", "earnings": 56803, "employment": 0.9243, "leoGraduates": 6975, "withdrawalRate": 0.028, "students2024": 137430 }, { "id": "nursing", "label": "Nursing and midwifery", "cah": [ "02-04" ], "publicService": true, "priceGroup": "B", "earnings": 37318, "employment": 0.937, "leoGraduates": 20150, "withdrawalRate": 0.0394, "students2024": 260690 }, { "id": "healthProfessions", "label": "Pharmacy, therapies and healthcare science", "cah": [ "02-02-03", "02-05-01", "02-05-02", "02-06-02", "02-06-03", "02-06-05", "02-06-07" ], "publicService": true, "priceGroup": "B", "earnings": 37078, "employment": 0.9101, "leoGraduates": 8410, "withdrawalRate": 0.0603, "students2024": 157790 }, { "id": "otherHealth", "label": "Other subjects allied to medicine", "cah": [ "02" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "B", "earnings": 36812, "employment": 0.9021, "leoGraduates": 8120, "withdrawalRate": 0.0629, "students2024": 179050 }, { "id": "teacherTraining", "label": "Teacher training", "cah": [ "22-01-02" ], "publicService": true, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 34400, "employment": 0.917, "leoGraduates": 5080, "withdrawalRate": 0.0632, "students2024": 81030 }, { "id": "education", "label": "Education", "cah": [ "22" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 26700, "employment": 0.888, "leoGraduates": 10040, "withdrawalRate": 0.0385, "students2024": 86770 }, { "id": "socialWork", "label": "Social work", "cah": [ "15-04-01" ], "publicService": true, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 32900, "employment": 0.914, "leoGraduates": 4185, "withdrawalRate": 0.0375, "students2024": 41120 }, { "id": "socialSciences", "label": "Social sciences", "cah": [ "15" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 36176, "employment": 0.8753, "leoGraduates": 24930, "withdrawalRate": 0.0579, "students2024": 417140 }, { "id": "biologySport", "label": "Biological and sport sciences", "cah": [ "03" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "B", "earnings": 32153, "employment": 0.9033, "leoGraduates": 19860, "withdrawalRate": 0.059, "students2024": 171530 }, { "id": "psychology", "label": "Psychology", "cah": [ "04" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 29554, "employment": 0.8949, "leoGraduates": 13775, "withdrawalRate": 0.0609, "students2024": 231410 }, { "id": "veterinary", "label": "Veterinary sciences", "cah": [ "05" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "A", "earnings": 40860, "employment": 0.9416, "leoGraduates": 985, "withdrawalRate": 0.0588, "students2024": 21130 }, { "id": "agriculture", "label": "Agriculture, food and related studies", "cah": [ "06" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "B", "earnings": 28938, "employment": 0.8899, "leoGraduates": 2335, "withdrawalRate": 0.131, "students2024": 29020 }, { "id": "physicalSciences", "label": "Physical sciences", "cah": [ "07" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "B", "earnings": 39011, "employment": 0.9036, "leoGraduates": 8385, "withdrawalRate": 0.0625, "students2024": 104780 }, { "id": "mathematics", "label": "Mathematical sciences", "cah": [ "09" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 43867, "employment": 0.8902, "leoGraduates": 6040, "withdrawalRate": 0.0484, "students2024": 74410 }, { "id": "engineering", "label": "Engineering and technology", "cah": [ "10" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "B", "earnings": 43859, "employment": 0.8901, "leoGraduates": 15150, "withdrawalRate": 0.0468, "students2024": 287450 }, { "id": "computing", "label": "Computing", "cah": [ "11" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 40276, "employment": 0.8582, "leoGraduates": 12195, "withdrawalRate": 0.0828, "students2024": 327320 }, { "id": "architecture", "label": "Architecture, building and planning", "cah": [ "13" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 39604, "employment": 0.8808, "leoGraduates": 4915, "withdrawalRate": 0.0552, "students2024": 114270 }, { "id": "law", "label": "Law", "cah": [ "16" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 33300, "employment": 0.875, "leoGraduates": 11475, "withdrawalRate": 0.0098, "students2024": 247570 }, { "id": "business", "label": "Business and management", "cah": [ "17" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 35564, "employment": 0.8533, "leoGraduates": 36265, "withdrawalRate": 0.0404, "students2024": 1020090 }, { "id": "languages", "label": "Languages and area studies", "cah": [ "19" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 31920, "employment": 0.8655, "leoGraduates": 15775, "withdrawalRate": 0.1297, "students2024": 116110 }, { "id": "humanities", "label": "History, philosophy and religion", "cah": [ "20" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 32603, "employment": 0.8792, "leoGraduates": 14485, "withdrawalRate": 0.0641, "students2024": 119120 }, { "id": "combined", "label": "Combined and general studies", "cah": [ "23" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 30453, "employment": 0.8276, "leoGraduates": 3725, "withdrawalRate": 0.1652, "students2024": 52750 }, { "id": "media", "label": "Media, journalism and communications", "cah": [ "24" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 28298, "employment": 0.8626, "leoGraduates": 8245, "withdrawalRate": 0.0894, "students2024": 76800 }, { "id": "creativeArts", "label": "Design, and creative and performing arts", "cah": [ "25" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 26400, "employment": 0.8605, "leoGraduates": 33680, "withdrawalRate": 0.0901, "students2024": 310410 }, { "id": "geography", "label": "Geography, earth and environmental studies", "cah": [ "26" ], "publicService": false, "priceGroup": "CD", "earnings": 35323, "employment": 0.904, "leoGraduates": 7575, "withdrawalRate": 0.1297, "students2024": 68140 } ] }, "behaviourEvidence": { "note": "How English providers have responded to their own finances, from HESA provider-level finance data, by scripts/import-hesa-behaviour.mjs. Each \"pair\" is one provider in two consecutive years, described by the earlier year (adjusted margin, liquidity days, run of deficits) and summarised by what happened in the later year. Staff measures use pairs from 2018/19 onwards, when staff FTE is reported consistently. Only counts, medians and shares are recorded; cells of fewer than five provider-years are suppressed. Growth rates are nominal.", "years": "2015/16 to 2024/25", "sources": [ { "title": "HE Provider Data: Finance, tables 1, 3, 4 and 12 (2015/16 to 2024/25)", "publisher": "HESA (Jisc)", "url": "https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "Provider-level income, expenditure (including restructuring costs and staff costs), cash, capital spending, staff FTE and region. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0." }, { "title": "Provider typologies 2022: provider data", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/provider-typologies-2022/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The finance typology group of each provider, by UKPRN." } ], "pairs": { "total": 1966, "staffEra": 1699 }, "response": { "overall": { "all": { "pairs": 1699, "medianFteGrowth": 0.0255, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0569, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0513, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 1.0476, "medianCapexChange": 0.0089, "medianMarginChange": -0.001, "shareRestructuring": 0.216, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.012, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.329 }, "deficit": { "pairs": 530, "medianFteGrowth": 0.0041, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0331, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0518, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 0.7659, "medianCapexChange": -0.0434, "medianMarginChange": 0.0335, "shareRestructuring": 0.287, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0158, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.643 }, "surplusAbove3": { "pairs": 841, "medianFteGrowth": 0.0418, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0799, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0624, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 1.3025, "medianCapexChange": 0.0329, "medianMarginChange": -0.0187, "shareRestructuring": 0.152, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0075, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.124 } }, "byMargin": { "below-5": { "label": "deficit over 5%", "pairs": 292, "medianFteGrowth": 0.0168, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0383, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.086, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 0.6667, "medianCapexChange": -0.1046, "medianMarginChange": 0.0613, "shareRestructuring": 0.264, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0155, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.743 }, "-5to0": { "label": "deficit up to 5%", "pairs": 238, "medianFteGrowth": 0, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0265, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0273, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 0.9207, "medianCapexChange": 0, "medianMarginChange": 0.0148, "shareRestructuring": 0.315, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0166, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.521 }, "0to3": { "label": "surplus up to 3%", "pairs": 328, "medianFteGrowth": 0.0101, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0458, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.038, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 1.0523, "medianCapexChange": 0.0511, "medianMarginChange": -0.0006, "shareRestructuring": 0.265, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0168, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.348 }, "3to6": { "label": "surplus 3-6%", "pairs": 290, "medianFteGrowth": 0.027, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0638, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0505, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 1.2493, "medianCapexChange": 0.0152, "medianMarginChange": -0.0064, "shareRestructuring": 0.193, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0073, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.176 }, "above6": { "label": "surplus over 6%", "pairs": 551, "medianFteGrowth": 0.0534, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0934, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0684, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 1.3411, "medianCapexChange": 0.0539, "medianMarginChange": -0.0289, "shareRestructuring": 0.131, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0075, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.096 } }, "byDeficitRun": { "surplus": { "pairs": 1169, "medianFteGrowth": 0.0336, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0659, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0507, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 1.2059, "medianCapexChange": 0.0427, "medianMarginChange": -0.0122, "shareRestructuring": 0.184, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0087, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.186 }, "oneDeficit": { "pairs": 247, "medianFteGrowth": 0.0031, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0337, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0531, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 0.8997, "medianCapexChange": 0.0058, "medianMarginChange": 0.0381, "shareRestructuring": 0.239, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0185, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.571 }, "twoOrMoreDeficits": { "pairs": 283, "medianFteGrowth": 0.008, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0313, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0504, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 0.6855, "medianCapexChange": -0.1027, "medianMarginChange": 0.0314, "shareRestructuring": 0.329, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0146, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.707 } }, "byLiquidityDays": { "below30": { "pairs": 137, "medianFteGrowth": 0.025, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.051, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0646, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 0.8195, "medianCapexChange": -0.1178, "medianMarginChange": 0.0126, "shareRestructuring": 0.226, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0102, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.46 }, "30to60": { "pairs": 180, "medianFteGrowth": 0.0145, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0507, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0505, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 0.9196, "medianCapexChange": -0.159, "medianMarginChange": 0.0128, "shareRestructuring": 0.2, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0243, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.372 }, "60to120": { "pairs": 470, "medianFteGrowth": 0.0196, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0517, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0498, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 0.913, "medianCapexChange": -0.102, "medianMarginChange": 0.0043, "shareRestructuring": 0.26, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0125, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.36 }, "above120": { "pairs": 905, "medianFteGrowth": 0.0305, "medianSalaryGrowth": 0.0622, "medianIncomeGrowth": 0.0502, "medianCapexToDepreciation": 1.1975, "medianCapexChange": 0.1149, "medianMarginChange": -0.0104, "shareRestructuring": 0.197, "medianRestructuringShareOfStaff": 0.0098, "shareInDeficitNext": 0.28 } } }, "persistence": { "providers": 233, "deficit2024": 89, "ofDeficitAlsoDeficit2023": 0.652, "ofDeficitAlsoDeficit2022": 0.483, "ofSurplusDeficit2023": 0.243 }, "incomeShocks": { "note": "Log income growth relative to the group median in the same year, providers with income over £20m. The robust SD is the interquartile range divided by 1.349, so a few restructurings, mergers and accounting changes do not dominate it. The autocorrelation is Spearman, between consecutive years for the same provider.", "observations": 1219, "robustSd": 0.051, "autocorrelation": 0.262, "autocorrelationPairs": 1064 }, "restructuring2024": { "providers": 59, "totalM": 229.8, "medianShareOfStaffCosts": 0.02, "p75ShareOfStaffCosts": 0.037 }, "stoppedReporting": { "note": "English providers whose last year with income in HESA is the given year. This counts closures, mergers, changes of registration and reporting gaps alike; it is context, not a count of failures.", "byLastYear": { "2017/18": 1, "2018/19": 1, "2019/20": 2, "2020/21": 5, "2021/22": 1, "2022/23": 5, "2023/24": 14 } } }, "leverDrawers": [ { "id": "home", "label": "Home students" }, { "id": "international", "label": "International students" }, { "id": "research", "label": "Research" }, { "id": "regulation", "label": "Regulation" }, { "id": "structure", "label": "Structure of the sector" }, { "id": "executive", "label": "Executive pay and management" }, { "id": "other", "label": "Other government policy" } ], "levers": [ { "id": "homeFeeCap", "label": "Undergraduate fee cap", "drawer": "home", "primary": true, "control": "number", "unit": "£ a year", "min": 7500, "max": 15000, "step": 50, "baseline": 10050, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "The most a provider can charge a home undergraduate a year from 2027-28. Currently £10,050 in 2027-28.", "counterfactual": "Any value other than £10,050 is a change of policy." }, { "id": "feeIndexation", "label": "Fee cap indexation after 2027-28", "drawer": "home", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "frozen", "label": "Frozen" }, { "value": "cpi", "label": "CPI" }, { "value": "rpi", "label": "Forecast RPIX (planned)" }, { "value": "earnings", "label": "Average earnings" } ], "baseline": "rpi", "takesEffect": "2028-08-01", "description": "How the cap moves each year after 2027-28. The government intends automatic RPIX indexation but has not yet legislated for it.", "counterfactual": "'Frozen' repeats the 2017-2024 freeze; 'CPI' indexes to a slightly lower measure." }, { "id": "teachingGrant", "label": "OfS teaching grant", "drawer": "home", "primary": false, "control": "number", "unit": "% of 2026-27 level", "min": 0, "max": 300, "step": 10, "baseline": 100, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "The OfS recurrent teaching grant (the Strategic Priorities Grant for high-cost subjects and access), as a percentage of its 2026-27 level (£1,252m). It is held in cash terms in the baseline. Other funding body grants, such as capital, are not affected.", "counterfactual": "Any value other than 100% is a change of policy." }, { "id": "teachingGrantIndexation", "label": "Teaching grant indexation", "drawer": "home", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "cash", "label": "Held in cash terms" }, { "value": "cpi", "label": "Rises with inflation (CPI)" } ], "baseline": "cash", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "Whether the OfS teaching grant keeps its value. It is held in cash terms in current plans, so it falls in real terms every year.", "counterfactual": "Indexing the grant is a proposal (the book's Chapter 20 argues for indexing the principal teaching grants as well as the fee cap)." }, { "id": "highCostSubsidy", "label": "Extra funding for high-cost subjects", "drawer": "home", "primary": false, "control": "number", "unit": "£ per student a year", "min": 0, "max": 3000, "step": 250, "baseline": 0, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "Added to the OfS's high-cost subject funding for every full-time-equivalent home undergraduate and taught postgraduate in laboratory, clinical and health subjects (price groups A and B), on top of today's rates (£1,737 a year for group B in 2025-26). International and research students are not eligible, as now. Which subjects qualify is approximated from HESA subject groups.", "counterfactual": "Any amount above £0 is a change of policy.", "regime": true }, { "id": "numberControls", "label": "Student number controls", "drawer": "home", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "None (as now)" }, { "value": "1", "label": "Each provider capped at its 2024-25 intake" } ], "baseline": "0", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "Whether providers may recruit as many home undergraduates as they can attract. With caps, each provider's yearly intake of home undergraduates is held at or below its 2024-25 intake. Caps were abolished in 2015.", "counterfactual": "Institutional caps are a counterfactual (England had them before 2015).", "regime": true }, { "id": "placesCut", "label": "Cut in home undergraduate places", "drawer": "home", "primary": false, "control": "number", "unit": "% fewer entrants", "min": 0, "max": 40, "step": 1, "baseline": 0, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "Fewer home undergraduate entrants than providers would otherwise recruit, through number controls. England's providers teach about 1.34 million full-time-equivalent home undergraduates, roughly 450,000 a year of entry: 100,000 fewer entrants a year is about 22 per cent. (UCAS alone counted 424,000 acceptances to English providers in 2024.)", "counterfactual": "England has had no limit on home undergraduate numbers since 2015.", "regime": true }, { "id": "placesTarget", "label": "Which courses lose places", "drawer": "home", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "Spread evenly across courses" }, { "value": "1", "label": "Mostly courses with low graduate earnings" } ], "baseline": "0", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "How a cut in places is shared out. Aimed at low earnings, it falls mostly on subjects whose graduates earn least five years on (LEO), such as the creative arts, and so on the providers that teach them.", "counterfactual": "Only matters when places are cut.", "regime": true }, { "id": "feesReplaced", "label": "Tuition fees abolished", "drawer": "home", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "No: fees paid with student loans (as now)" }, { "value": "1", "label": "Yes: government pays providers instead" } ], "baseline": "0", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "Students pay no tuition fee; the government pays each provider a grant per home undergraduate equal to the fee cap above, which you can set lower or higher, and which then rises with the fee cap's indexation. The taxpayer bears the whole cost instead of the part of student loans never repaid.", "counterfactual": "England has charged undergraduate fees since 1998. Scotland has free tuition for Scottish students, with the number of funded places set by government.", "regime": true }, { "id": "intlLevy", "label": "International student levy", "drawer": "international", "primary": true, "control": "number", "unit": "£ per student a year", "min": 0, "max": 2000, "step": 25, "baseline": 925, "takesEffect": "2028-08-01", "description": "Charged on providers for each international student above an allowance of 220, from 2028-29, uprated with inflation.", "counterfactual": "£0 abolishes the levy before it starts." }, { "id": "intlCap", "label": "Cap on international entrants", "drawer": "international", "primary": true, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "none", "label": "No cap" }, { "value": "1.0", "label": "Held at 2024-25 levels" }, { "value": "0.9", "label": "10% below 2024-25" }, { "value": "0.8", "label": "20% below 2024-25" }, { "value": "0.7", "label": "30% below 2024-25" }, { "value": "0.5", "label": "Halved" } ], "baseline": "none", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "A limit on new international entrants, shared out in proportion to each provider's 2024-25 international numbers.", "counterfactual": "There is no cap on international student numbers today." }, { "id": "dependants", "label": "Taught postgraduates' dependants", "drawer": "international", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "Not allowed (research degrees only)" }, { "value": "1", "label": "Allowed, as before 2024" } ], "baseline": "0", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "Since January 2024 only research students may bring partners and children.", "counterfactual": "'Allowed' restores the rules before January 2024." }, { "id": "graduateRoute", "label": "Graduate Route", "drawer": "international", "primary": true, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "Abolished" }, { "value": "12", "label": "12 months" }, { "value": "18", "label": "18 months (from January 2027)" }, { "value": "24", "label": "24 months (until December 2026)" }, { "value": "36", "label": "36 months" } ], "baseline": "18", "takesEffect": "2027-01-01", "description": "How long non-doctoral graduates may stay and work after their degree. PhD graduates keep three years throughout.", "counterfactual": "Anything but 18 months changes the policy due to start in January 2027." }, { "id": "visaFriction", "label": "Visa costs and friction", "drawer": "international", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0.5", "label": "Lower: cheaper, faster visas" }, { "value": "1", "label": "As now" }, { "value": "1.5", "label": "Higher: dearer, slower visas" } ], "baseline": "1", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "Visa fees, the immigration health surcharge and processing times for student visas.", "counterfactual": "Both alternatives are counterfactuals.", "regime": true }, { "id": "sponsorCompliance", "label": "Sponsor compliance regime", "drawer": "international", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0.5", "label": "Light" }, { "value": "1", "label": "As now" }, { "value": "1.5", "label": "Stringent" } ], "baseline": "1", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "The tests a university must pass to keep its licence to sponsor student visas (refusal, enrolment and completion rates), and the work of meeting them.", "counterfactual": "Both alternatives are counterfactuals; the thresholds are already tightening.", "regime": true }, { "id": "ukriFec", "label": "UKRI share of full economic cost", "drawer": "research", "primary": true, "control": "number", "unit": "% of full economic cost", "min": 80, "max": 100, "step": 5, "baseline": 80, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "What a research council grant pays towards the full economic cost of the project (80% now). The model keeps the volume of research constant, so a higher rate raises providers' income and costs the government more; the cost of the research itself is unchanged. Providers actually recover less than the nominal rate (TRAC), which the model's research cost already reflects.", "counterfactual": "Anything above 80% is a change of policy." }, { "id": "qrFunding", "label": "QR research funding", "drawer": "research", "primary": false, "control": "number", "unit": "% of current plans", "min": 50, "max": 200, "step": 10, "baseline": 100, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "Research England's quality-related funding, which universities may spend as they choose, as a percentage of current plans (£2,024m in 2026-27, then rising with inflation).", "counterfactual": "Any value other than 100% is a change of policy." }, { "id": "researchBudget", "label": "Research council budget", "drawer": "research", "primary": false, "control": "number", "unit": "% of current plans", "min": 70, "max": 150, "step": 5, "baseline": 100, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "The volume of UKRI research council grants. More grants means more research — and, because grants pay only part of the cost, more subsidy from universities.", "counterfactual": "Any value other than 100% is a change of policy.", "regime": true }, { "id": "refIntensity", "label": "Research assessment (REF)", "drawer": "research", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "Abolished: QR on past shares" }, { "value": "0.5", "label": "Light-touch" }, { "value": "1", "label": "As now" }, { "value": "2", "label": "Annual" } ], "baseline": "1", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "How research quality is assessed for QR. REF 2021 cost the sector about £471m over its seven-year cycle.", "counterfactual": "All alternatives are counterfactuals; REF 2029 is under way.", "regime": true }, { "id": "regulatoryBurden", "label": "Regulatory burden", "drawer": "regulation", "primary": true, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0.5", "label": "Minimal" }, { "value": "0.75", "label": "Proportionate (a quarter less)" }, { "value": "1", "label": "As now" }, { "value": "1.5", "label": "Intensive" } ], "baseline": "1", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "The cost of complying with OfS conditions, data returns and assessment exercises: halved, a quarter less, as now, or half as much again. The model counts the cost only: what regulation buys in quality and student protection is not modelled, so lighter regulation always looks cheaper. Treat the comparison as a partial one.", "counterfactual": "'Minimal', 'Proportionate' and 'Intensive' are illustrative regimes, not proposals." }, { "id": "outcomesThresholds", "label": "Student outcomes thresholds (B3)", "drawer": "regulation", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0.5", "label": "Relaxed" }, { "value": "1", "label": "As now" }, { "value": "1.5", "label": "Stringent" } ], "baseline": "1", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "The minimum continuation, completion and progression rates the OfS enforces. Stringent thresholds close weak provision, much of it franchised courses at small and Level 4-5 providers; the model counts the entrants lost or kept, as an assumption for those groups, not the benefit to students of closing poor courses.", "counterfactual": "Both alternatives are counterfactuals.", "regime": true }, { "id": "earningsEmphasis", "label": "Emphasis on graduate earnings", "drawer": "regulation", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "As now" }, { "value": "1", "label": "Strong: courses judged on earnings" } ], "baseline": "0", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "Whether regulation and funding judge courses on their graduates' earnings. If they do, providers close lower-earning courses first.", "counterfactual": "A strong emphasis is a counterfactual.", "regime": true }, { "id": "tef", "label": "Teaching Excellence Framework", "drawer": "regulation", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "Abolished" }, { "value": "0.5", "label": "Simplified" }, { "value": "1", "label": "As now" }, { "value": "1.5", "label": "Expanded" } ], "baseline": "1", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "The cost to providers of the TEF. The model counts its cost, not any effect on teaching quality.", "counterfactual": "All alternatives are counterfactuals.", "regime": true }, { "id": "accessRegulation", "label": "Access and participation regulation", "drawer": "regulation", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0.5", "label": "Light" }, { "value": "1", "label": "As now" }, { "value": "1.5", "label": "Intensive" } ], "baseline": "1", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "How much providers must spend under access and participation plans. The model counts the cost, not any effect on who enters higher education.", "counterfactual": "Both alternatives are counterfactuals.", "regime": true }, { "id": "financialMonitoring", "label": "Financial monitoring", "drawer": "regulation", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "Reactive" }, { "value": "1", "label": "As now" }, { "value": "2", "label": "Preventative" } ], "baseline": "1", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "How early the regulator presses providers to act on weak finances. Preventative monitoring makes providers act sooner and look for partners before their cash runs out. The model counts its effect on when providers act, not any other benefit of supervision.", "counterfactual": "Both alternatives are counterfactuals.", "regime": true }, { "id": "sharedServices", "label": "Shared services and collaboration", "drawer": "structure", "primary": true, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "As now" }, { "value": "1", "label": "Actively facilitated" }, { "value": "2", "label": "Facilitated, with the VAT penalty removed" } ], "baseline": "0", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "Whether government and the sector push back-office functions — IT, payroll, procurement, estates — into shared services, and whether VAT on services universities supply to each other is neutralised.", "counterfactual": "Both alternatives are proposals (the book's Chapter 20 argues for the second)." }, { "id": "mergerRegime", "label": "Merger regime", "drawer": "structure", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0.5", "label": "Difficult" }, { "value": "1", "label": "As now" }, { "value": "1.5", "label": "Facilitated" } ], "baseline": "1", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "How easy it is for two providers to merge: legal process, lender consent, regulatory approval and transition funding.", "counterfactual": "Both alternatives are counterfactuals.", "regime": true }, { "id": "resolutionRegime", "label": "Restructuring regime for failing providers", "drawer": "structure", "primary": false, "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "None (as now)" }, { "value": "1", "label": "Formal regime, set up in advance" } ], "baseline": "0", "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "A trigger for coordinated action before cash runs out, temporary funding and receiving capacity so that students are moved in an orderly way, and legal clarity on insolvency. Government rejected a special regime in July 2026.", "counterfactual": "A formal regime is a proposal (the book's Chapter 20 argues for one).", "regime": true }, { "id": "employerNi", "label": "Employer National Insurance", "drawer": "other", "primary": false, "control": "number", "unit": "% of earnings above the threshold", "min": 10, "max": 20, "step": 0.1, "baseline": 15, "takesEffect": "2027-04-06", "description": "The employer rate of National Insurance: 13.8 per cent until April 2025, 15 per cent since. (The threshold, cut at the same time, is not modelled.)", "counterfactual": "Any value other than 15% is a change of policy." }, { "id": "capitalSupport", "label": "Capital funding", "drawer": "other", "primary": false, "control": "number", "unit": "£m a year", "min": 0, "max": 1000, "step": 50, "baseline": 0, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "Extra government capital grants for buildings, equipment and IT, shared in proportion to providers' estates. Today's OfS capital funding is already in the model's base.", "counterfactual": "Any amount above £0 is extra capital funding.", "regime": true }, { "id": "maintenanceSupport", "label": "Maintenance support", "drawer": "other", "primary": false, "control": "number", "unit": "£ more per eligible student a year", "min": -1000, "max": 5000, "step": 250, "baseline": 0, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "A change in maintenance grants for home undergraduates from lower-income households (about two in five are eligible). More support draws more people into higher education. The last maximum grant, in 2015-16, was £3,387.", "counterfactual": "Any value other than £0 is a change of policy.", "regime": true }, { "id": "regionalFunding", "label": "Regional and civic funding", "drawer": "other", "primary": false, "control": "number", "unit": "£m a year", "min": 0, "max": 500, "step": 25, "baseline": 0, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "description": "Funding for universities outside London and the South East, shared in proportion to their home students.", "counterfactual": "Any amount above £0 is a counterfactual.", "regime": true }, { "id": "executivePay", "label": "Executive remuneration", "drawer": "executive", "primary": true, "control": "number", "unit": "% change", "min": -30, "max": 30, "step": 10, "baseline": 0, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "regime": true, "description": "Change executive salary rates from 2027–28, relative to ordinary pay growth. The change persists; it does not compound annually. Includes proportional pension and National Insurance costs.", "counterfactual": "A hypothetical institutional or sector-wide intervention, not a currently announced government policy. Zero retains the baseline path. Scenario values are not estimated behavioural thresholds." }, { "id": "executiveHeadcount", "label": "Executive headcount", "drawer": "executive", "primary": true, "control": "number", "unit": "% change", "min": -30, "max": 30, "step": 10, "baseline": 0, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "regime": true, "description": "Change executive posts from 2027–28, separately from salary rates. Reductions incur one-off severance. Teaching/research staffing ratios are unchanged directly. Management capacity, redistributed workload, hiring costs and efficiency effects are not quantified.", "counterfactual": "A hypothetical institutional or sector-wide intervention, not a currently announced government policy. Zero retains the baseline path. Scenario values are not estimated behavioural thresholds." }, { "drawer": "executive", "primary": false, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "regime": true, "counterfactual": "Experimental scenario, not an announced policy or an empirically estimated response. See executive assumptions for the illustrative mechanism and cost base.", "id": "executivePayRule", "label": "Executive pay progression (experimental)", "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "Current pay path" }, { "value": "1", "label": "Symmetric benchmarking (illustrative)" }, { "value": "2", "label": "Performance-linked progression (illustrative)" } ], "baseline": "0", "description": "Symmetric benchmarking removes an assumed annual ratchet premium from the ordinary pay path. Performance-linked progression adjusts pay using the previous year’s experience/research indices, with an assumed annual limit. Neither rule improves performance directly. These are hypothetical rules, not a replication of the research." }, { "drawer": "executive", "primary": false, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "regime": true, "counterfactual": "Experimental scenario, not an announced policy or an empirically estimated response. See executive assumptions for the illustrative mechanism and cost base.", "id": "executivePayRatio", "label": "Maximum executive/staff salary ratio (experimental)", "control": "number", "unit": "times median staff salary", "min": 0, "max": 20, "step": 1, "baseline": 0, "description": "Limit individual executive salaries to a multiple of assumed median staff salary, which follows ordinary pay growth. Zero means no constraint. Savings use an illustrative executive salary distribution, not observed salaries; employer costs change proportionally." }, { "drawer": "executive", "primary": false, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "regime": true, "counterfactual": "Experimental scenario, not an announced policy or an empirically estimated response. See executive assumptions for the illustrative mechanism and cost base.", "id": "executivePayCap", "label": "Executive salary cap (experimental)", "control": "number", "unit": "£ a year", "min": 0, "max": 600000, "step": 25000, "baseline": 0, "description": "An illustrative statutory-style salary ceiling from 2027–28. Zero means no cap. Applies to a hypothetical salary distribution, including its upper tail, not just the average executive. Where a ratio also applies, the tighter limit wins. Fixed benefits are not capped separately." }, { "drawer": "executive", "primary": false, "takesEffect": "2027-08-01", "regime": true, "counterfactual": "Experimental scenario, not an announced policy or an empirically estimated response. See executive assumptions for the illustrative mechanism and cost base.", "id": "executiveCapIndexation", "label": "Executive salary cap indexation", "control": "choice", "options": [ { "value": "0", "label": "Fixed in cash terms" }, { "value": "1", "label": "Indexed to CPI" } ], "baseline": "1", "description": "How the selected salary cap moves after 2027–28. This control has no effect unless a salary cap is set. The salary-ratio constraint follows ordinary staff pay independently." } ], "presets": [ { "id": "current", "label": "Current policy", "kind": "current", "summary": "The rules in force or announced in October 2026.", "levers": {}, "notes": [] }, { "id": "chapter20", "label": "The Chapter 20 settlement", "kind": "book", "summary": "The book's own recommendations to government, as far as the model can express them: stop erosion of the fee and the teaching grants, remove the VAT penalty on collaboration, recover more of research's cost, regulate proportionately with earlier attention to weak finances, and build a restructuring regime before the collapse.", "levers": { "teachingGrantIndexation": "cpi", "sharedServices": "2", "ukriFec": 90, "regulatoryBurden": "0.75", "financialMonitoring": "2", "resolutionRegime": "1" }, "notes": [ "The fee cap keeps the RPIX indexation already planned; the book asks for it to be made durable, which the model already assumes.", "International rules stay as they are: the book asks for stability and notice — published assessments, a full recruitment cycle before changes — not for particular settings.", "The book asks funders to state and improve the share of research cost they pay, without naming a rate; 90 per cent is an illustration.", "'Proportionate' regulation is illustrated as a quarter less compliance cost; the book is explicit that this is not deregulation.", "Preventative financial monitoring stands for the chapter's call for heavier attention 'while intervention can still help'.", "The restructuring regime is modelled as earlier, convened searches for partners, orderly transfer of most students when a provider does close, public transfer funding, and a small premium charged by lenders — the cost government cited in rejecting it." ] }, { "id": "feesFrozen", "label": "Fees frozen to 2036", "kind": "scenario", "summary": "The fee cap reaches £10,050 in 2027-28 and is then frozen, as it was from 2017 to 2024.", "levers": { "feeIndexation": "frozen" }, "notes": [] }, { "id": "researchFullCost", "label": "Research pays its full cost", "kind": "scenario", "summary": "Research council grants pay the full economic cost of research, at the government's expense.", "levers": { "ukriFec": 100 }, "notes": [ "The model keeps research volume fixed; with a fixed budget, the same rate would fund fewer projects." ] }, { "id": "intlCapped", "label": "International students capped", "kind": "scenario", "summary": "New international entrants capped at 20 per cent below 2024-25 levels from 2027-28.", "levers": { "intlCap": "0.8" }, "notes": [] }, { "id": "lightTouch", "label": "Low-regulation OfS", "kind": "scenario", "summary": "Compliance costs halved.", "levers": { "regulatoryBurden": "0.5" }, "notes": [ "Any effect of lighter regulation on quality or student protection is not modelled." ] }, { "id": "collaborative", "label": "Collaborative sector", "kind": "scenario", "summary": "Government pushes shared back-office services and neutralises the VAT that makes sharing dearer than duplication.", "levers": { "sharedServices": "2" }, "notes": [] }, { "id": "visas2023", "label": "International rules as in 2023", "kind": "historical", "summary": "The 2023 rules applied from 2026: two-year Graduate Route, taught postgraduates' dependants allowed, no levy.", "levers": { "graduateRoute": "24", "dependants": "1", "intlLevy": 0 }, "notes": [ "Applied from 2026; not a re-run of what happened." ] }, { "id": "fee2012", "label": "2012's fee in today's money", "kind": "historical", "summary": "The £9,000 fee of 2012-13 restored to its real value: about £15,000 in 2027-28.", "levers": { "homeFeeCap": 15000 }, "notes": [ "The DfE estimates the 2025-26 fee of £9,535 is worth about £5,920 in 2012-13 prices, so £9,000 then is about £14,500 in 2025-26 money and over £15,000 by 2027-28; £15,000 is the top of the lever.", "The model assumes higher fees do not deter home applicants; the government's loan cost rises with the fee." ] }, { "id": "partyLabour", "label": "Labour (the government)", "kind": "party", "summary": "Current policy: the Labour government's settled and announced plans. Its White Paper's other aims for universities come without figures, so the model cannot represent them beyond current policy.", "levers": {}, "notes": [], "party": { "name": "Labour", "position": "Government", "asOf": "2026-10-05", "sources": [ { "title": "Post-16 education and skills White Paper", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/post-16-education-and-skills-white-paper/post-16-education-and-skills-white-paper", "date": "2025-11-21" }, { "title": "Introducing an international student levy on higher education providers", "publisher": "Department for Education", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introducing-an-international-student-levy-on-higher-education-providers", "date": "2026-07-13" } ], "proposals": [ { "said": "The fee cap rises with inflation: £10,050 in 2027-28, then with forecast RPIX.", "source": 0, "notModelled": "Already current policy, so already in every run." }, { "said": "A levy of £925 a year for each international student from August 2028, with an allowance for each provider's first 220.", "source": 1, "notModelled": "Already current policy, so already in every run." }, { "said": "Targeted maintenance grants for disadvantaged students on courses that support the government's missions and Industrial Strategy.", "source": 0, "notModelled": "Already current policy. The model counts only changes to maintenance grants, so their cost is not in its public cost." }, { "said": "Improve the cost recovery of research.", "source": 0, "notModelled": "No rate is given. The research cost-recovery control can test one." }, { "said": "Encourage greater specialisation, based on research and teaching strengths, in collaboration with other institutions.", "source": 0, "notModelled": "No mechanism or scale is given. The shared services and merger controls can test some." } ] } }, { "id": "partyConservative", "label": "Conservative", "kind": "party", "summary": "About 100,000 fewer university entrants a year, through number controls aimed at courses with poor graduate outcomes, with the savings spent on apprenticeships.", "levers": { "placesCut": 22, "placesTarget": "1", "earningsEmphasis": "1" }, "notes": [ "Every change starts in 2027-28, as for every control. The next general election is due by August 2029, so a new government's changes would come about two years later than shown." ], "party": { "name": "Conservative", "position": "Opposition", "asOf": "2026-10-05", "sources": [ { "title": "Badenoch's number caps plan would cut 100,000 university places", "publisher": "Times Higher Education", "url": "https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/badenochs-number-caps-plan-would-cut-100000-university-places", "date": "2025-10-08" }, { "title": "Kemi Badenoch pledges to cut interest paid on student loans", "publisher": "PA Media (via AOL)", "url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/kemi-badenoch-pledges-cut-interest-003621732.html", "date": "2026-02-22" } ], "proposals": [ { "said": "Number controls on every subject group, cutting about 100,000 university places a year.", "source": 0, "levers": [ "placesCut" ], "reading": "100,000 is about 22 per cent of a year's home undergraduate entrants in England.", "assumption": false }, { "said": "The controls fall on courses that consistently lead to poor graduate outcomes.", "source": 0, "levers": [ "placesTarget", "earningsEmphasis" ], "reading": "Poor outcomes are read as low graduate earnings (LEO), both in where places are cut and in how courses are judged. The party has not said how courses would be chosen.", "assumption": true }, { "said": "Cap the interest on Plan 2 student loans at RPI, removing the extra of up to 3 per cent.", "source": 1, "notModelled": "Plan 2 covers students who started between 2012 and 2023. Their repayments do not change universities' income, and the model counts only the cost of new lending." }, { "said": "Spend the savings (put at £3.6bn) on doubling apprenticeships.", "source": 1, "notModelled": "Apprenticeships are outside the model. The saving on student loans appears in its public cost." } ] } }, { "id": "partyGreen", "label": "Green", "kind": "party", "summary": "Tuition fees abolished and maintenance grants restored. The party has not said how universities would be funded instead; the preset assumes the government pays them the fee in full.", "levers": { "feesReplaced": "1", "maintenanceSupport": 3500, "dependants": "1" }, "notes": [ "Every change starts in 2027-28, as for every control. The next general election is due by August 2029, so a new government's changes would come about two years later than shown." ], "party": { "name": "Green Party of England and Wales", "position": "Opposition", "asOf": "2026-10-05", "sources": [ { "title": "Greens pledge A* education offer", "publisher": "Green Party", "url": "https://greenparty.org.uk/2024/07/02/greens-pledge-a-education-offer/", "date": "2024-07-02" }, { "title": "The political parties' manifesto commitments on higher education", "publisher": "Higher Education Policy Institute", "url": "https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2024/06/10/live-the-political-parties-manifesto-commitments-on-higher-education/", "date": "2024-06-10" } ], "proposals": [ { "said": "Scrap tuition fees.", "source": 0, "levers": [ "feesReplaced" ], "reading": "The party has not said what replaces fee income. The preset has the government pay each provider the fee cap (£10,050 in 2027-28, rising as planned) for every home undergraduate. Set the fee cap lower to test a smaller grant.", "assumption": true }, { "said": "Restore maintenance grants for undergraduates.", "source": 0, "levers": [ "maintenanceSupport" ], "reading": "No amount is given. The preset uses £3,500 for each eligible student, about the last maximum grant (£3,387 in 2015-16), as for the Liberal Democrats.", "assumption": true }, { "said": "Allow international students to bring dependants.", "source": 1, "levers": [ "dependants" ], "reading": "Dependants allowed for taught postgraduates again, as before 2024.", "assumption": false }, { "said": "In the long run, cancel graduate debt.", "source": 1, "notModelled": "Changes what graduates repay, not what universities receive." }, { "said": "Spend £30bn more on research by the end of the Parliament.", "source": 1, "notModelled": "The split between universities and other research, and the timing, are not given." } ] } }, { "id": "partyLibDem", "label": "Liberal Democrat", "kind": "party", "summary": "Maintenance grants restored, the international student levy and the employer National Insurance rise reversed, shared services encouraged and research budgets raised with inflation.", "levers": { "maintenanceSupport": 3500, "intlLevy": 0, "employerNi": 13.8, "sharedServices": "1", "researchBudget": 105 }, "notes": [ "Every change starts in 2027-28, as for every control. The next general election is due by August 2029, so a new government's changes would come about two years later than shown." ], "party": { "name": "Liberal Democrats", "position": "Opposition", "asOf": "2026-10-05", "sources": [ { "title": "From local roots to global reach: a liberal vision for universities (spring conference motion F10)", "publisher": "Liberal Democrats", "url": "https://www.libdems.org.uk/conference/motions/spring-2026/f10", "date": "2026-03" } ], "proposals": [ { "said": "Reintroduce maintenance grants on top of student loans, aiming to cover 35 per cent of undergraduates, rising to 50 per cent when public finances allow.", "source": 0, "levers": [ "maintenanceSupport" ], "reading": "No amount is given. The preset uses £3,500 for each eligible student, about the last maximum grant (£3,387 in 2015-16).", "assumption": true }, { "said": "Reverse Labour's National Insurance rise and the international student levy.", "source": 0, "levers": [ "intlLevy", "employerNi" ], "reading": "The levy is never charged, and the employer rate returns to 13.8 per cent. The lower threshold that came with the rise is not modelled.", "assumption": false }, { "said": "Explore shared-service reform.", "source": 0, "levers": [ "sharedServices" ], "reading": "'Explore' is read as actively facilitating shared services, without removing the VAT penalty.", "assumption": true }, { "said": "Increase research budgets with inflation and move towards multi-year settlements.", "source": 0, "levers": [ "researchBudget" ], "reading": "The model's current plans have research grants falling behind inflation by about half a per cent a year, because much of UKRI's budget is flat in cash. Keeping pace with inflation would leave them about 5 per cent higher by 2035-36. The preset uses 5 per cent from 2027-28, slightly generous in the early years.", "assumption": true }, { "said": "Interest-free loans for internal restructuring.", "source": 0, "notModelled": "The model has no government lending to providers. The restructuring regime is a different policy." }, { "said": "Unfreeze graduate repayment and parental income thresholds; write off some debt for key public-service workers after 10 years.", "source": 0, "notModelled": "These change what graduates repay, not what universities receive." }, { "said": "Double degree apprenticeships in skill-shortage areas.", "source": 0, "notModelled": "Apprenticeships are outside the model." } ] } }, { "id": "partyReform", "label": "Reform UK", "kind": "party", "summary": "Student-loan spending cut by a fifth by withdrawing funding from about 20 per cent of degrees, judged by a new value-for-money test.", "levers": { "placesCut": 20, "placesTarget": "1", "earningsEmphasis": "1" }, "notes": [ "Every change starts in 2027-28, as for every control. The next general election is due by August 2029, so a new government's changes would come about two years later than shown.", "Reform UK says it will set out a fuller education policy later; this preset reflects its conference announcements of September 2026." ], "party": { "name": "Reform UK", "position": "Opposition", "asOf": "2026-10-05", "sources": [ { "title": "Scrap caps on training NHS doctors, says Reform's Braverman", "publisher": "Times Higher Education", "url": "https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/scrap-caps-training-nhs-doctors-says-reforms-braverman", "date": "2026-09-07" }, { "title": "Right of centre: searching for higher education at Reform UK's annual conference", "publisher": "Higher Education Policy Institute", "url": "https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2026/09/05/right-of-centre-searching-for-higher-education-at-reform-uks-annual-conference/", "date": "2026-09-05" } ], "proposals": [ { "said": "Cut student-loan spending by 20 per cent (£4bn of £22bn a year), withdrawing funding from about 20 per cent of degrees.", "source": 0, "levers": [ "placesCut" ], "reading": "Read as 20 per cent fewer home undergraduate entrants. How the cut would work (fewer loans, number controls or something else) has not been said.", "assumption": true }, { "said": "A value-for-money test that degrees and universities must meet to get funding.", "source": 0, "levers": [ "placesTarget", "earningsEmphasis" ], "reading": "Value for money is read as graduate earnings (LEO), both in which courses lose places and in how courses are judged. The test's content has not been published.", "assumption": true }, { "said": "Scrap the cap on places for British medical students.", "source": 0, "notModelled": "The model has no cap on medical places to lift. More medical students would mean more high-cost teaching at providers with medical schools." }, { "said": "End student-loan interest for nurses.", "source": 0, "notModelled": "Changes what graduates repay, not what universities receive." }, { "said": "No funding for universities that do not protect freedom of speech.", "source": 0, "notModelled": "The model has nothing that measures this." } ] } } ], "shocks": [ { "id": "intlFall", "label": "International recruitment falls by 30%", "summary": "A sudden, lasting loss of international demand — a visa scandal, a currency crisis in a main market, a competitor's offer.", "defaultYear": 2028, "effects": { "intlEntrants": { "factor": 0.7, "years": null } }, "evidence": "weak", "sources": [ { "title": "Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026", "publisher": "Office for Students", "url": "https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-03", "supports": "The OfS's own stress scenarios model sustained under-recruitment, with deficits at up to 196 providers in the most severe." } ], "note": "Dependant applications fell by almost 80 per cent in the first quarter after the 2024 restriction; a 30 per cent fall in all international entrants is a severe but not unprecedented stress for individual markets." }, { "id": "inflation", "label": "Inflation of 8%", "summary": "An inflation spike like 2022-23's: prices jump, pay catches up only partly, and the fee cap — uprated on a forecast set in advance — follows a year late.", "defaultYear": 2027, "effects": { "series": { "cpi": { "0": 0.08, "1": 0.05 }, "payAward": { "0": 0.05, "1": 0.06 }, "rpi": { "1": 0.09, "2": 0.06 } } }, "evidence": "weak", "sources": [ { "title": "Consumer price inflation, UK", "publisher": "Office for National Statistics", "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices", "retrieved": "2026-10-05", "supports": "CPI inflation peaked at 11.1 per cent in October 2022." } ], "note": "Modelled on 2022-23, scaled down: national pay awards then were 3 per cent plus one-off payments, well below inflation, before catching up. Because the model uprates the fee cap with the RPI of the same year, the shock moves the RPI spike a year later to reflect fees set on forecasts made in advance." }, { "id": "recession", "label": "A recession", "summary": "Two years in which earned income (commercial, residences, conferences) and international demand fall, while more home students apply, as they did in 2008-09.", "defaultYear": 2028, "effects": { "earnedIncome": { "factor": 0.9, "years": 2 }, "intlEntrants": { "factor": 0.9, "years": 2 }, "homeEntrants": { "factor": 1.03, "years": 2 } }, "evidence": "weak", "sources": [], "note": "Home demand for higher education tends to rise when jobs are scarce; the sizes are illustrative." }, { "id": "feeFreeze", "label": "A five-year fee freeze", "summary": "The fee cap is held in cash terms for five years from the chosen year, then indexation resumes from the frozen level.", "defaultYear": 2029, "effects": { "feeFreezeYears": 5 }, "evidence": "strong", "sources": [], "note": "The mechanism is exact; whether a government would do it is the scenario. The cap was frozen at £9,250 from 2017-18 to 2024-25." }, { "id": "researchCut", "label": "Research funding cut by 15%", "summary": "Research council grants, other research income and QR all fall by 15 per cent for good.", "defaultYear": 2028, "effects": { "research": { "factor": 0.85, "years": null } }, "evidence": "weak", "sources": [], "note": "An illustrative cut in the public research budget, passed on to universities' research income. Providers do not cut their research activity automatically: they respond only as their finances require." }, { "id": "homeFall", "label": "Home applications fall by 10%", "summary": "A lasting fall in home demand — a weaker graduate premium, a shift to apprenticeships, or cost-of-living pressure.", "defaultYear": 2028, "effects": { "homeEntrants": { "factor": 0.9, "years": null } }, "evidence": "weak", "sources": [], "note": "Illustrative. Applies to new entrants, so it reaches students on roll over the length of a course." }, { "id": "interestRise", "label": "Interest rates up 3 points", "summary": "Borrowing costs rise by three percentage points on the share of the sector's debt that floats or is refinanced.", "defaultYear": 2027, "effects": { "interest": { "pointsRise": 0.03, "floatingShare": 0.3, "years": null } }, "evidence": "none", "sources": [], "note": "Most university debt is fixed-rate, which the model assumes elsewhere; 30 per cent floating or due for refinancing is an assumption. Higher returns on cash, which would partly offset the cost, are not modelled." }, { "id": "majorInsolvency", "label": "A major insolvency", "summary": "The weakest large or medium-sized university closes, and the shock spreads: international applicants grow warier and lenders and merger partners more cautious for three years.", "defaultYear": 2029, "effects": { "closure": { "groups": [ "largeTeaching", "medium" ], "contagion": { "intlEntrants": 0.95, "partnerChance": 0.5, "years": 3 } } }, "evidence": "none", "sources": [ { "title": "A very serious problem: no clear government plan for universities risking insolvency", "publisher": "House of Commons Education Committee", "url": "https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/203/education-committee/news/213482/a-very-serious-problem-no-clear-government-plan-for-universities-risking-insolvency-mps-find-in-new-report/", "retrieved": "2026-10-05", "supports": "The committee found no clear government plan for what happens if a university becomes insolvent; England has no special administration regime for universities." } ], "note": "Untested in England, so every part of this is an assumption: which provider fails (the one with least cash in its group), and how far confidence falls." } ] }