Why Obvious Solutions Fail

Chapter 12

Four Ways to Become Fragile

Sources supporting this chapter, with the manuscript section they relate to and a note explaining how each item contributes.

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Sources
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Further reading
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Chapter sections

Showing all 9 references

Evidence used

Sources

Material used to support factual claims and explanations in this chapter.

Source

Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026

Office for Students, 14 May 2026; corrected edition published 15 June 2026

Used for current English-sector data on student recruitment, tuition-fee income, forecasts, borrowing, capital expenditure and maintenance backlogs. The report's aggregate data do not describe every provider.

1. The recruitment curve that never arrived2. The building that ate the budget4. The board paper that made optimism look governed

Source

Student Sponsor Guidance: Sponsorship duties

Home Office and UK Visas and Immigration, updated 1 June 2026

Used for the regulated process through which a provider sponsors international students and assigns Confirmations of Acceptance for Studies. This guidance is time-sensitive.

1. The recruitment curve that never arrived

Source

UKRI guidance on FEC grant terms and conditions

UK Research and Innovation

Used for the usual 80 per cent funding of full economic cost and the research organisation's responsibility for the remaining cost.

3. The prestige bet with a hidden subsidy

Source

Find out what costs are eligible for UKRI funding

UK Research and Innovation

Used for background on direct, estates and indirect research costs.

3. The prestige bet with a hidden subsidy

Source

Condition E2: Management and governance

Office for Students

Used for the formal management and governance requirements applying to registered providers in England.

4. The board paper that made optimism look governed

Source

The Management of Building Projects at English Higher Education Institutions

National Audit Office, February 1998

Used only as historical evidence that appraisal and control of university estate projects are longstanding governance concerns.

2. The building that ate the budget

Go deeper

Further reading

Selected contextual material that extends or complements the chapter.

Further reading

Performing a Project Premortem

Gary Klein, Harvard Business Review, September 2007

Background to the prospective hindsight question used in the composite near miss.

The near miss: optimism treated as a cost

Further reading

A Quick Guide to Transparent Approach to Costing (TRAC)

UK Research and Innovation

Plain-language context on full economic costing and why grant income does not map neatly onto the real cost of research.

Chapter-wide context