Why Obvious Solutions Fail

Chapter 11

Why Universities Cannot Shrink Meekly

Sources supporting this chapter, with the manuscript section they relate to and a note explaining how each item contributes.

18
Sources
1
Further reading
8
Chapter sections

Showing all 19 references

Evidence used

Sources

Material used to support factual claims and explanations in this chapter.

Source

Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England 2026

Office for Students; May 2026

used for the section's claim that staff costs, excluding pension adjustments, accounted for just over half of English providers' expenditure in 2023-24 and 2024-25, making them the largest single category in the aggregate figures. This does not establish the cost structure of every provider.

People are not line itemsThe expensive middleWhat responsible shrinkage would require

Source

Increased pressure on higher education finances

Office for Students; 16 May 2024

used for the chapter's account of financial pressure on providers, including the affordability of necessary estates maintenance and development, and the investment required to reduce carbon emissions.

Chapter-wide context

Source

Financial pressures and financial sustainability: What we require providers to do

Office for Students; published 25 April 2023, last updated 14 May 2026

used for the discussion of universities needing prudent forecasts, early engagement with lenders, possible lender risk aversion, covenant discussions taking longer under current financial pressure, and the continuing requirement to protect students while addressing financial difficulty.

Why shrinkage can make decline worseWhat responsible shrinkage would require

Source

Securing student success: Regulatory framework for higher education in England

Office for Students; last updated 24 November 2022

used for the section's references to OfS registration conditions and the continuing regulatory floor for registered providers.

Why smaller does not mean cheaper

Source

Condition C3: Student protection plan

Office for Students; last updated 24 November 2022

used for the claim that registered providers must maintain student protection arrangements, consider risks to continuation of study, and implement their plans when relevant events occur.

The teach-out trap

Source

Student protection plans

Office for Students

used for the claim that registered providers must have student protection plans and that these plans cover course, campus or institution closure, continuation of study, completion, transfer and compensation where completion is not possible.

Why smaller does not mean cheaperThe teach-out trap

Source

Course or campus closures

Office for Students; 24 June 2025

used for the section's account of what course or campus closure requires: reporting significant closure of a subject area, department or campus to the OfS; early communication; teach-out or transfer arrangements; review of student commitments; contact with applicants and offer-holders; discussion with relevant professional, statutory or regulatory bodies and validators; and updates to advertising.

Why closure takes yearsThe teach-out trapWhy shrinkage can make decline worseWhat responsible shrinkage would require

Source

UK higher education providers - advice on consumer protection law: Helping you comply with your obligations

Competition and Markets Authority; 31 May 2023

used for the section's reference to consumer-law and contract constraints around course information, changes to pre-contract information, fair terms, student complaints and the difficulty students face in switching provider or course after enrolment.

Why closure takes yearsThe teach-out trap

Source

Higher Education Estates Management Report 2024

Association of University Directors of Estates; 17 January 2025

used for the chapter's treatment of estates as a live financial and operational constraint, including maintenance, safety, energy use, space utilisation and long-term estate planning.

Chapter-wide context

Source

Making staff redundant: Redundancy consultations

GOV.UK

used for the claim that redundancy proposals involve consultation duties, including collective consultation where 20 or more redundancies are proposed within 90 days at a single establishment, with minimum periods before dismissal; also used for the section's distinction between ordinary redundancy process and the collective consultation threshold.

People are not line items

Source

When you must consult: Collective consultation for redundancy

Acas; updated 7 April 2026

used for the discussion of employee representation, consultation and potential protective awards where collective consultation duties are breached.

People are not line items

Source

Make Work Pay: threshold for triggering collective redundancy obligations

Department for Business and Trade; published 26 February 2026, updated 26 March 2026

used to flag the future organisation-wide trigger provided for by the Employment Rights Act 2025 and the need to recheck the threshold before publication.

People are not line items

Source

Advance notification of redundancies: guidance for employers

Insolvency Service; updated 9 December 2025

used for the claim that employers proposing 20 or more redundancies at one establishment within 90 days must notify the Redundancy Payments Service and observe 30- or 45-day minimum notification and consultation periods depending on the scale of proposed dismissals.

Chapter-wide context

Source

Student Sponsor Guidance: Sponsorship duties

Home Office and UK Visas and Immigration; 2026

used for the claim that student sponsors retain duties, including reporting and Basic Compliance Assessment requirements, while sponsored students remain and are taught out.

Why smaller does not mean cheaper

Source

Student Sponsor Guidance: Student sponsor compliance

Home Office and UK Visas and Immigration; 2026

used for the claim that UKVI monitors student-sponsor compliance and may take action or impose sanctions for breaches.

Chapter-wide context

Source

UKRI guidance on FEC grant terms and conditions

UK Research and Innovation; 1 April 2026

used for the section's claim that live research awards carry continuing grant-management, research governance, equipment, financial reporting, transfer, staffing and full-economic-cost obligations that do not disappear immediately when a university narrows its research base.

Chapter-wide context

Source

UKRI training grants: standard terms and conditions of training grant

UK Research and Innovation; 1 April 2026

used for the section's claim that doctoral studentships and training grants bring continuing responsibilities for student administration, supervision, welfare, ethics, data handling, reporting and compliance with funder conditions.

Chapter-wide context

Source

FRS 102: The Financial Reporting Standard applicable in the UK and Republic of Ireland

Financial Reporting Council; September 2024 edition

used for the distinction between recognising a restructuring provision or charge and the timing of the associated cash expenditure.

The expensive middle

Go deeper

Further reading

Selected contextual material that extends or complements the chapter.

Further reading

Governance News Alert: Association of University Directors of Estates (AUDE) Higher Education Estates Management Report 2025

Advance HE

useful context on the 2025 estates management findings, including rising property costs and signs of worsening condition across parts of the higher education estate.

Chapter-wide context